000 AXNT20 KNHC 302353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TH CENTER OF ERNESTO IS ABOUT TO EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2 NORTH 80.7 WEST OR JUST NORTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT 00 UTC AUG 31. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS COVERS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BASED ON MELBOURNE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ERNESTO CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND TOWARDS THE SE U.S. COAST WHILE LIKELY STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING REMAINS EVIDENT ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE IS ELONGATED AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RATHER MINIMAL AND DISORGANIZED...THEREFORE ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE FAIRLY WEAK IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17N. THE SFC LOW REMAINS EASY TO LOCATE AS IT IS A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION....DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N28W 9N45W 8N60W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SMALL PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-26W AND BETWEEN 41W-48W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE W COAST OF AFRICA LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE REGION AS IT IS PRODUCING BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...NAMELY FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 80W-83W. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH E NOW CENTERED OFF THE SE U.S. COASTLINE NEAR 31N76W AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S INTO THE N GULF WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 25N93W. THESE FEATURES ARE PROVIDING THE STEERING FOR ERNESTO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH NEAR THE BASE. AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE NRN GULF TO S TEXAS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CHALLENGING TO LOCATE AS IT APPEARS TO BECOMING DIFFUSE IN THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIE MAINLY AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT ENHANCED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 84W-91W. RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS N AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM S TO N. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... CONDITIONS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY AS ERNESTO TRACKED N OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A TAIL TROUGH LEFT FROM THE SYSTEM REMAINS ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. PATCHES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE FIRED UP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ENHANCED BY LOCAL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ALONG 84W POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY SURGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW LIES ABOVE THE REGION BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH OVER S MEXICO AND AN UPPER LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. DRY STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION NOT OUTLINED. TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO MAINLY THE 15-20 KT RANGE E OF 80W... LIGHTER WINDS W OF THERE. MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN THE CNTRL AND E CARIBBEAN KEEPING DRY AIR INTACT. SOME INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SE U.S. COASTLINE NEAR 31N76W HAS RIDGING THAT STRETCHES ENE TO 48W ALONG 32N/33N. ERNESTO IS MOVING AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF THE RIDGE WITH THE AXIS ALONG 32N43W 25N57W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 19N60W. AN ASSOCIATED SFC OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 31N57W SW TO 25N65W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST MAINLY FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 54W-64W. AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 20N BETWEEN 53W-73W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 50W WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 19N25W AND ANOTHER NEAR 19N39W. AN UPPER LOW CLIPS THE AREA CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N15W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE AREA UNDER THE LARGE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRES GRAD EXISTS W OF 55W DUE TO THE WEAK OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRONGER GRAD IN THE E ATLC AS THE AZORES HIGH INTERACTS WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 17N46W. $$ CANGIALOSI