000 AXNT20 KNHC 301055 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS NEAR 25.6N 80.9W AT 30/0900 UTC. THIS POSITION IS IN NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY FLORIDA...WHICH IS ALSO ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA AND ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 KT. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... RAINBANDS CONTAINING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE TODAY IN THE WARNING AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS ON NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGES AND THE FIRST FEW VIS IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW CLEAR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 6N-14N WITHIN 200NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS...THOUGH SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD. A COUPLE SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 42W-46W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N29W 10N32W 11N43W 10N46W 9N61W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE ATLC WATERS W OF AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 14W-27W. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 37W-41W. MINIMAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS SEEN W OF 45W TO THE S AMERICAN COAST. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...MOVING NNW THROUGH THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA...REMAINS THE FOCUS THIS MORNING AS IT IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90NM FROM THE CENTER. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE SPREADING N UP THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS S OF 30N. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE FAR NW GULF OFF TEXAS AND EXTENDS NE THROUGH LOUISIANA AND SRN MISSISSIPPI. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING INTO THE NRN GULF OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 88W-94W. INSTABILITY AROUND THE BASE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NW GULF IS ALSO HELPING TO SUPPORT THESE CELLS. CLOCKWISE UPPER FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH OVER SRN MEXICO IS AFFECTING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHILE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SSE FLOW IS SEEN STREAMING OVER THE ERN GULF ON THE W SIDE OF A MID/UPPER HIGH OFF THE SE US COAST. ERNESTO IS MOVING NNW AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... OVERALL VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN. ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVING SSW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH NEAR SRN MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY/STABLE UPPER AIR AND FAIR WEATHER. TRADE WINDS ARE A FAIRLY LIGHT 5-15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT S OF ERNESTO. TRADES TO PICK UP A TOUCH OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS AS THE ATLC HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST NEAR 32N75W EXTENDS E/SE TO NEAR 60W. ERNESTO IS MOVING AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH CLOUDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STREAMING QUICKLY TO THE SW IN THE ASSOCIATED NE FLOW ON THE SE SIDE OF THIS HIGH. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF THE RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING NE FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR 30N53W...WITH AN UPPER LOW SEEN SPINNING NEAR 21N58W. AN ASSOCIATED OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 30N56W 22N65W...WITH A WEAK 1013MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N57W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THIS LOW AND INTO THE ATLC WATERS OUT OF OUR AREA. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST E AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 51W-56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE ANALYZED TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 50W WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 18N25W. AN UPPER LOW CLIPS THE AREA CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N16W. THE S/SW PORTION OF AN AZORES 1023MB SURFACE HIGH IS AFFECTING THE ERN ATLC AS WELL. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE MOVING N UP THE FLORIDA AND SE US COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING S SWELL. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT WW3 NORTH ATLC HURRICANE MODEL BRINGS BUOY 41004 OFF OF SC TO 23 FEET IN S SWELL BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AND UNDOUBTEDLY DEPENDS ON THE ULTIMATE FATE OF ERNESTO AS IT EMERGES BACK OVER WATER LATER TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. $$ WILLIS