000 AXNT20 KNHC 300607 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS NEAR 25.2N 80.7W AT 30/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM...EAST OF FLAMINGO FLORIDA AND ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 KT. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... RAINBANDS CONTAINING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE TODAY IN THE WARNING AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS ON NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGES SHOW CLEAR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE WAS MORE CHALLENGING TO LOCATE YESTERDAY AS IT WAS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON TROUGH...NOW IT APPEARS TO BE SEPARATING ITSELF AND BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 6N-13N WITHIN 200NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A LARGER CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FURTHER W OF THE WAVE LOCATION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 32W-38W...LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE ITCZ. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD. A SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 42W-44W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 12N28W 11N31W 13N42W 10N45W 10N61W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVES...SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE ATLC WATERS W OF AFRICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 15W-25W. MINIMAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS SEEN W OF 45W TO THE S AMERICAN COAST. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...MOVING NNW THROUGH THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA...REMAINS THE FOCUS TONIGHT AS IT IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90NM...OVER THE COASTAL REGION OF SE FLORIDA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. WINDS IN THE FAR SE GULF ARE BACKING TO THE NW MOSTLY IN THE 15-20KT RANGE. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE SPREADING N UP THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS S OF 29N. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SEEN SPINNING OVER THE WRN GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS SPINNING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS FEATURE. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH OVER SRN MEXICO IS AFFECTING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WEAK 1013MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SE TEXAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... CONDITIONS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN HAVE IMPROVED AND THE HEAVY RAIN OVER ERN CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW SE OF ERNESTO HAS DIMINISHED. OVERALL VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS NOW AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN. A NARROW SWATH OF MODERATE CONVECTION SEEN MOVING N OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. ASIDE FROM THIS AND LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE FAR NRN CARIBBEAN SE OF ERNESTO...MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SEEN...WITH DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR DOMINATING MUCH OF THE BASIN. TRADE WINDS ARE A FAIRLY LIGHT 10-15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST NEAR 32N76W HAS RIDGING THAT STRETCHES E TO 60W ALONG 32N. ERNESTO IS MOVING AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH CLOUDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STREAMING QUICKLY TO THE SW IN THE ASSOCIATED NE FLOW ON THE SE SIDE OF THIS HIGH. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF THE RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING NE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 30N50W...WITH AN UPPER LOW SEEN SPINNING NEAR 21N58W. AN ASSOCIATED OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N56W 24N64W...WITH A WEAK 1014MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN JUST E AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 50W-56W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 50W WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 18N27W. AN UPPER LOW CLIPS THE AREA CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N16W. THE S/SW PORTION OF AN AZORES 1026MB SURFACE HIGH IS AFFECTING THE ERN ATLC AS WELL. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE MOVING N UP THE FLORIDA AND SE US COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING S SWELL. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT WW3 NAH MODEL BRINGS BUOY 41004 OFF OF SC TO 25 FEET IN S SWELL BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. $$ WILLIS