000 AXNT20 KNHC 300000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS NEAR 24.8N 80.4W AT 30/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 15 MILES...25 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ISLAMORADA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTH OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MIDNIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE AND SE QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 40 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS S FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE CENTER. MOST OF THE RAIN BANDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED ALONG 29W/30W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS NEW POSITION IS BASED MOSTLY ON THE LOW-MID CIRCULATION THAT HAS BECOME MORE APPARENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ON NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGES. IN ADDITION...GFS HAS A WAVE LIKE FEATURE IN A SIMILAR LOCATION. THIS WAVE WAS MORE CHALLENGING TO LOCATE YESTERDAY AS IT WAS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON TROUGH...NOW IT APPEARS TO BE SEPARATING ITSELF AND BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SPREAD OUT ALONG THE WAVE FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 21W-36W. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE FAIRLY WEAK IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17N. THE SFC LOW IS SLIGHTLY LESS DEFINED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. THERE IS ONE PATCH OF CONVECTION TO THE N OF THE CENTER FROM 17.5N-19N BETWEEN 41W-43W. ELSEWHERE NEAR THE WAVE AND LOW...CONVECTION IS MINIMAL. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 12N28W 11N36W 8N45W 9N60W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVES... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTEND ACROSS THE N PORTION OF S AMERICA WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS OVER W COLOMBIA FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 74W-79W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS THE BIG STORY AS IT IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...STRONGEST AND MORE WIDESPREAD ON THE E SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE SPREADING N UP THE FL PENINSULA S OF 28N. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS PUSHED E NOW CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NEAR 33N77W AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THESE FEATURES ARE PROVIDING THE STEERING FOR ERNESTO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING NW IN THE W GULF NEAR 26N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. RAINY AND WINDS CONDITIONS ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EXTREME E PORTIONS OF THE GULF THRU TOMORROW AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTHWARD. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... CONDITIONS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING AS ERNESTO CONTINUES TO PULL N OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL STILL EXIST OVER CUBA AND SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THIS RAINFALL IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY LOCAL UPSLOPE FLOW. MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BAHAMAS W OF 75W. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS. A TAIL TROUGH OF MOISTURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA W OF 65W N OF 16N. FOR MORE DETAILS REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. DRY STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION NOT OUTLINED. TRADE WINDS ARE A FAIRLY LIGHT 10-15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WINDS NEAR ERNESTO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NEAR 33N77W HAS RIDGING THAT STRETCHES E TO 60W ALONG 33N. ERNESTO IS MOVING AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF THE RIDGE WITH THE AXIS ALONG 32N48W 28N53W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N57W. AN ASSOCIATED OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N54W 26N64W. A WEAK SFC TROUGH LIES AHEAD OF THIS OLD BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WIMPY 1018 MB LOW NEAR 34N46W TO 26N57W. THIS AREA MAY BE GROUPED TOGETHER AS ONE SOLID FRONT OR TROF AT 00 UTC AS THESE BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE FEATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 50W-58W. AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 21N BETWEEN 48W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 40W WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 19N25W. AN UPPER LOW CLIPS THE AREA CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N14W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRES GRAD EXISTS W OF 50W DUE TO THE WEAK OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRONGER GRAD IN THE E ATLC AS A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES AND A 1011 MB LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 17N43W. $$ CANGIALOSI