000 AXNT20 KNHC 291805 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS NEAR 23.9N 79.7W AT 29/1800 UTC. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 120 NM/220 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA...AND 120 NM/220 KM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME OF THE RAIN FROM THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF T.S. ERNESTO ARE REACHING THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FLORIDA AREA AS WE SPEAK. RAINBANDS ALREADY WERE MAKING THEIR PRESENCE FELT IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS EVEN EARLIER. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CUBA TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 78.5W AND 81W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 78.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N75W 24N77W 25N77W 26N79W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WAVE IS ENHANCING IT. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W MOVING WEST ONLY 10 KT SINCE THE 29/0600 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N. THIS LOW CENTER IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 41W...AND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 13N17W 11N28W 11N33W 13N40W 10N45W 8N56W 9N65W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING BUT LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W...AND FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND 41W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 13W AND 18W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ARE SHEARING THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WATCH OUT FOR T.S. ERNESTO. IT IS OVER THE WATERS OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SPREADING STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA TO SOUTH FLORIDA BETWEEN 78.5W AND 82W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH WAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF T.S. ERNESTO 24 HOURS AGO IS STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO BUT NOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 21N82W JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 25N95W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE GULF WATERS AND EASTERN MEXICO AND LOUISIANA AND TEXAS FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 90W AND 101W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS. THE FRONT GOES FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE FAR WEST TEXAS. THE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 90W AND THE MEXICO EAST COAST. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. ERNESTO HAS MOVED AWAY FROM CUBA AND IS MOVING TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN 78.5W AND 81W. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH WAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF T.S. ERNESTO 24 HOURS AGO IS STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO BUT NOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 21N82W JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 18N84W...JUST WEST OF THE TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 65W AND CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH OF HONDURAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG THE ITCZ...9N73W 11N84W FROM COLOMBIA TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER EARLIER. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS DISAPPEARED AS UPPER LEVEL SHEARING WINDS HAVE BEEN MOVING RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF THIS AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N57W TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 24N60W TO 23N64W 26N70W TO A SMALL-SIZED LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. THE 24N78W LOW CENTER IS JUST NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF T.S. ERNESTO. CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N74W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHWARD WAY BEYOND 32N...SOUTHWARD TO 20N...AND WEST OF 58W TO 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS FLORIDA...GEORGIA...ALABAMA... AND THE EASTERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N53W TO 26N56W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N57W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N49W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE 1012 MB LOW CENTER TO 26N56W 23N59W 22N63W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N29W TO 27N33W... TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N37W TO 10N45W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N32W 22N37W 16N39W 11N49W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 40W NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN OVER THE TOP OF THE 32N29W 10N45W TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N15W JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. $$ MT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 291805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS NEAR 23.9N 79.7W AT 29/1800 UTC. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 120 NM/220 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA...AND 120 NM/220 KM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME OF THE RAIN FROM THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF T.S. ERNESTO ARE REACHING THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FLORIDA AREA AS WE SPEAK. RAINBANDS ALREADY WERE MAKING THEIR PRESENCE FELT IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS EVEN EARLIER. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CUBA TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 78.5W AND 81W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 78.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N75W 24N77W 25N77W 26N79W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WAVE IS ENHANCING IT. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W MOVING WEST ONLY 10 KT SINCE THE 29/0600 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N. THIS LOW CENTER IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 41W...AND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 13N17W 11N28W 11N33W 13N40W 10N45W 8N56W 9N65W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING BUT LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W...AND FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND 41W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 13W AND 18W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ARE SHEARING THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WATCH OUT FOR T.S. ERNESTO. IT IS OVER THE WATERS OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SPREADING STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA TO SOUTH FLORIDA BETWEEN 78.5W AND 82W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH WAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF T.S. ERNESTO 24 HOURS AGO IS STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO BUT NOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 21N82W JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 25N95W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE GULF WATERS AND EASTERN MEXICO AND LOUISIANA AND TEXAS FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 90W AND 101W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS. THE FRONT GOES FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE FAR WEST TEXAS. THE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 90W AND THE MEXICO EAST COAST. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. ERNESTO HAS MOVED AWAY FROM CUBA AND IS MOVING TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN 78.5W AND 81W. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH WAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF T.S. ERNESTO 24 HOURS AGO IS STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO BUT NOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 21N82W JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 18N84W...JUST WEST OF THE TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 65W AND CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH OF HONDURAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG THE ITCZ...9N73W 11N84W FROM COLOMBIA TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER EARLIER. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS DISAPPEARED AS UPPER LEVEL SHEARING WINDS HAVE BEEN MOVING RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF THIS AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N57W TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 24N60W TO 23N64W 26N70W TO A SMALL-SIZED LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. THE 24N78W LOW CENTER IS JUST NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF T.S. ERNESTO. CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N74W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHWARD WAY BEYOND 32N...SOUTHWARD TO 20N...AND WEST OF 58W TO 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS FLORIDA...GEORGIA...ALABAMA... AND THE EASTERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N53W TO 26N56W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N57W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N49W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE 1012 MB LOW CENTER TO 26N56W 23N59W 22N63W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N29W TO 27N33W... TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N37W TO 10N45W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N32W 22N37W 16N39W 11N49W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 40W NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN OVER THE TOP OF THE 32N29W 10N45W TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N15W JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. $$ MT