000 AXNT20 KNHC 290606 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS NEAR 22.2N 78.3W AT 29/0600 UTC. THIS POSITION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CANAGUA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 275 MILES...445 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 265 MILES ...425 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ERNESTO EMERGES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO REMAINS LIMITED. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SEEN OVER EASTERN CUBA...LIKELY AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE SE QUADRANT OF ERNESTO. OTHER CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE SEEN IN THE WATERS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CENTRAL CUBA...ALONG WITH OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED ALONG 23W/24W S OF 23N...MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS IT IS SUPERIMPOSED ON THE MONSOON TROUGH. HOWEVER...HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THE WAVE IS THERE AND CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A REGION OF LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING BETWEEN 22W-28W. ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 200NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 24N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17N. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING REMAINS VERY EVIDENT IN THE LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD AROUND THE WAVE AXIS AND SURFACE LOW...THOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL. A COUPLE SMALL CELLS OF MODERATE CONVECTION COVER THE AREA WITHIN 20NM OF 15N44W AND 17N39W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N12W 11N22W 11N25W 12N38W 10N42W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER AFRICA E OF 18W FROM 9N-17N LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. A NEW CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS BETWEEN THE SRN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND AFRICA...FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 18W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 29W-37W. THE WRN HALF OF THE AXIS IS FAIRLY QUIET BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE NRN PORTION OF S AMERICA LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... ALL EYES REMAIN ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AS THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN FLORIDA AND THE ERN GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. CURRENTLY IN THE GULF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN PUSHING W OF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA...IN THE ERN GULF WATERS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 82W-84W. THIS SEEMS MOST ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT AIR BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH SEEN SPINNING OVER THE SE US AND THE UPPER LOW MOVING W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS DOMINATING THE WRN HALF OF THE GULF THIS EVENING...AROUND A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N94W. A FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT IS OVER THE GULF...WITH ASSOCIATED LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS BEING OBSERVED. THE ONLY WINDS OVER 10 KT SEEN ARE JUST OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS WHERE THE WEAK WRN EXTENSION OF THE ATLC HIGH IS INTERACTING WITH A 1006MB SURFACE LOW OVER MEXICO NEAR 26N101W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NRN HAITI...ERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CNTRL AND SE BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN OUTSIDE OF THE VICINITY OF ERNESTO IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH MINIMAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY NOTED. DRY/STABLE AIR IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER HIGH IN THE AREA. DRY/STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED W INTO THE ERN AND CNTRL CARIBBEAN AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH. TRADE WINDS ARE A FAIRLY LIGHT 5-15KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO A WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT S OF ERNESTO. CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR ERNESTO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE US HAS RIDGING THAT STRETCHES E TO 65W ALONG 31N/32N. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN 45W-65W MAINLY N OF 20N. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS UNDER THIS VICINITY ALONG 26N61W 32N53....ALONG WITH A PAIR OF WEAK 1013MB SURFACE LOWS NEAR 30N56W AND 32N53W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE FROM 29N-35W BETWEEN 49W-57W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 50W WITH MULTIPLE HIGH CENTERS. A COUPLE OF WEAK BENIGN UPPER LOWS ARE ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING LITTLE...IF ANY...WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CLIPS THE AREA CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N14W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRES GRAD EXISTS W OF 50W DUE TO THE WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRONGER GRAD IN THE E ATLC AS A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AZORES AND A 1011 MB LOW ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 17N40W. $$ WILLIS