000 AXNT20 KNHC 281409 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 905 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 UPDATED THE POSITION OF T.S. ERNESTO...WIND SPEED...AND PRESSURE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.9N 75.5W AT 28/1200 UTC OR ON THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ABOUT 17 NM/30 KM WEST OF GUANTANAMO...MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE SE COAST OF CUBA AND HAS A RECENT FLARE UP OF CONVECTION TO THE N OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21.5N BETWEEN 73W-76W. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND E CUBA. THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND BE MOVING TOWARD THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 23N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL SWIRL IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE/LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST LIMITING ACTIVITY ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 9N32W 7N45W 7N54W 6N60W ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN JUST N OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA NEAR 9N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 19W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 31W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 7N-12N E OF 23W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE US WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING S OVER FLORIDA AND THE FAR E GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W AND E OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS CENTERED NEAR 20N90W AND EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS SURROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S/CENTRAL GULF S OF 25N FROM 87W-93W WHILE DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NE GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N E OF 86W. REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER QUITE THIS MORNING BUT WILL CHANGE ON TUE AS ERNESTO CROSSES CUBA AND ENTERS THE FAR SE GULF BY TUE MORNING AS A TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE. CARIBBEAN SEA... FOCUS OF WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 20N90W COVERING THE AREA W OF 85W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. UPPER EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 70W COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SAME AREA IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 12N73W-15N83W. BROAD UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING COVERING THE SW ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 73W. AN UPPER LOW IS NE OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N74W EXTENDING SW TO THE COAST OF CUBA. UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO COVERS THE SW ATLC =S OF 24N FROM 60W-72W. THIS IS ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS MOVED RAPIDLY S INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 45W-65W AND ENCOMPASSING THE LARGE UPPER LOW THAT REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N50W. A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE 23N57W TO BEYOND 32N52W. A NARROWING UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N38W AS A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N35W HAS BROKEN DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE E ATLC OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS LOCATED JUST E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 19N E OF 30W. A 1027 MB HIGH REMAINS JUST NE OF THE AZORES WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 25N50W AND A 1011 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF DEBBY... DRIFTS N CENTERED NEAR 33N47W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. $$ WALLACE