000 AXNT20 KNHC 280602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.0N 75.0W AT 28/0600 UTC MOVING NW AT 8 KT OR ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ERNESTO IS ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE LAND MASS IN WEAKENING THE STORM DECREASING BANDING AND WARMING IN THE CLOUD TOPS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT MOVING OVER CUBA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA AS WELL. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 23N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL SWIRL IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE/LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST LIMITING ACTIVITY ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS NO LONGER IN THE ATLC BASIN. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 9N30W 8N40W 9N50W 7N60W ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA NEAR 10N85W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 24W TO JUST INLAND OVER AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 25W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE US WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING S OVER THE GULF AND E OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PRECEDED ERNESTO IS NOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDS OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE MOVED INTO THE FAR E GULF AND ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT BUT WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ERNESTO CROSSES CUBA AND ENTERS THE FAR SE GULF BY TUE MORNING AS A TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE. CARIBBEAN SEA... FOCUS OF WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT W ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W COVERING THE AREA N OF 11N W OF 80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. BROAD UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 70W. AN UPPER LOW IS NE OF THE TURKS/CAICOS NEAR 25N73W EXTENDING S TO THE COAST OF CUBA. UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA E OF THE UPPER LOW TO NEAR 26N64W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N FROM 66W-73W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND W PUERTO RICO. A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N50W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 19N53W. A NARROWING UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N39W AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N34W BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE E ATLC OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 20N E OF 30W. A 1029 MB HIGH REMAINS JUST NE OF THE AZORES WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 25N45W AND A 1012 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF DEBBY...IS CENTERED NEAR 32N48W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE W ATLC. THIS HAS BROKEN DOWN THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVIOUSLY DOMINATED THE ENTIRE ATLC. $$ WALLACE