000 AXNT20 KNHC 271800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 73.7W AT 27/1500 UTC MOVING NW AT 8 KT OR ABOUT 115 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI AND 210 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS... CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N AND E OF THE CENTER. OUTER RAINBANDS COVER HISPANIOLA WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 68W-75W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY IS CENTERED NEAR 29.6N 49.2W AT 27/1500 UTC MOVING N AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WELL N OF THE CENTER FROM 30N-35N BETWEEN 48W-51W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 23N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE/LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST LIMITING ACTIVITY ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 31W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER S MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH THE N PORTION EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR...LIMITING ANY CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 9N30W 7N50W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 22W-27W... AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 30W-35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 54W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB HIGH HAS IS CENTERED OVER N GEORGIA NEAR 34N84W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N95W. THE E GULF...E OF 88W...HAS LIGHT VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SLY FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 83W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE NEAR 35N85W PRODUCING ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE N GULF ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N101W. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF BETWEEN 92W-97W. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF...AND OVER THE N GULF...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...AND A TROPICAL WAVE... ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 80W-84W DUE PRIMARILY TO THE ITCZ. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER BELIZE AT 18N87W MOVING W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 11N-25N BETWEEN 80W-93W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER PUERTO RICO AT 18N67W. THIS CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH HURRICANE ERNESTO OUTFLOW. EXPECT ERNESTO TO MOVE W AND BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DOMINATE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS AT 39N22W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO 30N36W 20N54W. T.D. DEBBY IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 55W-70W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH. AFRICAN DUST IS OVER A VERY LARGE AREA FROM 5N-35N BETWEEN 15W-40W...AND FROM 5N-23N BETWEEN 50W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NE FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N 0F 26N AND W OF 75W. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N71W. A LARGER UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N51W PRODUCING SLY UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER T.D. DEBBY AND WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC E OF 32W. $$ FORMOSA