000 AXNT20 KNHC 261815 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.1N 71.2W AT 26/1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT 12 KT OR ABOUT 250 NM SOUTH SOUTH-WEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND 420 NM EAST SOUTH-EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. OUTER RAINBANDS ARE TO THE N AND E OF THE SYSTEM. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE OUTER RAINBANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE CENTER FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 66W-72W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY AT 26/1500 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 25.6N 47.3W AT 26/1500 UTC MOVING WEST NORTH-WEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL N OF THE CENTER FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 45W-47W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A 1008 MB LOW IS MOVING OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N24W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 21W-30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 86W/87W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A STRONG UPPER LOW PARTIALLY MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE...N OF 13N...IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR LIMITING CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 7N30W 7N50W 8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-30W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 45W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC HAS WEAKENED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOW... A 1016 MB BUBBLE HIGH HAS FORMED OVER FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. THIS HIGH WILL BE A FACTOR IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF T.S. ERNESTO. THE E GULF...E OF 88W...HAS LIGHT SE SURFACE FLOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SLY FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 82W-86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 91W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 36N91W PRODUCING NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE N GULF ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N100W. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF...AND OVER N GULF...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND A TROPICAL WAVE... ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 75W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N61W. THIS CIRCULATION IS PUTTING SE SHEAR OVER T.S. ERNESTO. EXPECT ERNESTO TO MOVE W AND BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DOMINATE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS AT 39N22W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO 32N53W. T.S. DEBBY IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 70W-75W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT. AFRICAN DUST IS OVER A VERY LARGE AREA FROM 5N-35N BETWEEN 15W-40W...AND FROM 5N-23N BETWEEN 50W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N80W. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 25N70W. A SIMILAR UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N53W. SLY UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS NOW OVER T.S. DEBBY WEAKENING THE STORM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC E OF 32W. $$ FORMOSA