000 AXNT20 KNHC 261150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 70.6W AT 26/1200 UTC MOVING WNW AT 14 KT OR ABOUT 245 NM SOUTH SOUTH-WEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND 455 NM EAST SOUTH-EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 14.5N69.5W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 65W-71W. OUTER RAINBANDS ARE TO THE N AND E OF THE SYSTEM AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 60W-80W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED AND HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 26/0900 UTC. DEBBY IS CENTERED NEAR 25.3N 46.7W AT 26/0900 UTC MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 45W-47W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A 1009 MB LOW IS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN MOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N22W MOVING W 10-15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE N OF THE LOW WITHIN WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 19N20W-20N25W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 85W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A STRONG UPPER LOW PARTIALLY MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. WAVE IS MOVED MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE THE N PORTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR...LIMITING ANY CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 6N32W 7N52W 9N62W ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-26W AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 43W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA...REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N/CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 85W TO INLAND OVER N FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 27N. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC HAS WEAKENED AS IT EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... FOCUS OF WEATHER TONIGHT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AND THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN. A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST W OF JAMAICA COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 74W. THIS UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE WEAK SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED JUST TO THE E OF ERNESTO PRODUCING GOOD OUTFLOW MAINLY OVER THE ISLANDS NE OF THE ERNESTO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC JUST N OF THE REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH BERMUDA THEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N TO THE E COAST OF THE US. JUST TO THE S IS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N/CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N58W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 76W-79W AND N OF 30N FROM 71W-77W. A SMALL...ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS NOTED NEAR 24N70W WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE N CARIBBEAN. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N53W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 21N54W. THIS IS GENERATING ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS AS IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AIR. THE INTERACTION OF THE E PORTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AND THE W PORTION OF LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER RIDGING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS GENERATING THE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER DEBBY. A 1028 MB HIGH IS JUST NE OF THE AZORES WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO N OF DEBBY INTO THE W ATLC AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO. MORE AFRICA DUST IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE FAR E ATLC BUT MAINLY FROM 20N-28N E OF 30W. $$ WALLACE