000 AXNT20 KNHC 251118 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE AT 25/0900 UTC IS NEAR 13.4N 65.7W MOVING WEST 17 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 300 NM/560 KM SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 61.5W AND 66W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDER- STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST 5 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 50W AND 68W. THIS SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE AREA NOW COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...WHICH IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 25/0900 UTC IS NEAR 22.9N 42.3W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 15 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS 1115 NM/2065 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. FOR MORE DETAILS READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 30N50W 26N50W 25N63W IS WEST OF DEBBY. DEBBY IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. ...TROPICAL WAVES... STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 13W AND 20W IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM GUINEA TO GUINEA-BISSAU TO SENEGAL OF AFRICA WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE... ACCOMPANIED BY A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N16W. THE LOW CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS TO EASTERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED CELLS OF STORMS IN EXTREME WESTERN PANAMA AND COASTAL WATERS. CELLS OF STORMS ALSO ARE IN COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-CENTRAL AMERICA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN AS A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER HAS BEEN FORMING ALONG IT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 11N15W 10N20W TO 10N50W 10N54W 12N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N20W 6N30W 7N40W 9N50W 12N55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN WEST TEXAS/ NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N106W IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TOP OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HURRICANE ILEANA POKES ITSELF INTO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH OF THE WEST TEXAS TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS AGAINST THE EAST CENTRAL MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N97W NEAR TAMPICO. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WESTWARD...ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT 250 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTRAL YUCATAN CHANNEL. ONE CELL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 23N90.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COASTLINE FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND 31N68W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 32N80W TO 34N89W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N63W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N77W IN BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS/NORTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS TO EASTERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED CELLS OF STORMS IN EXTREME WESTERN PANAMA AND COASTAL WATERS. CELLS OF STORMS ALSO ARE IN COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CENTRAL AMERICA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE LOW CENTER ON ITS SOUTHEASTERLY SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE FLOW AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N49W TO 27N50W...TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 25N63W...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO A 19N77W CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THIS TROUGH...COVERING THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA/ GEORGIA/THE CAROLINAS. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS NEAR 22.9N 42.3W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 15 KT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS FOUND ALSO FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. $$ MT