000 AXNT20 KNHC 250625 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE AT 25/0300 UTC IS NEAR 13.2N 63.9W MOVING WEST 16 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 340 NM/625 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W...FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA FROM 9N TO 10.5N AT THE COAST BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W IN A BAND THAT CURVES AWAY FROM THE CENTER TO THE EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 52W AND 67W. THIS SYSTEM IS ALONE IN AN AREA SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 25/0300 UTC IS NEAR 21.9N 41.1W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 16 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS 1035 NM/1915 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. FOR MORE DETAILS READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 31N49W 27N50W 25N62W IS WEST OF DEBBY. DEBBY IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. ...TROPICAL WAVES... STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8.5N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU OF AFRICA WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE... ACCOMPANIED BY A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 16N16W. THE LOW CENTER IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W...MOSTLY IN THE WATERS OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE ITCZ...AND SOME BY THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND DISSIPATING OR ALREADY DISSIPATED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS AREA. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/894W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE ALSO IS AT THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE SOUTHERN HONDURAS/NORTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA BORDER. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO EL SALVADOR AND...POSSIBLY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 10N19W 10N20W TO 10N50W 10N55W 12N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N20W 6N30W 6N40W 9N50W 11N55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN WEST TEXAS/ NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N106W IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TOP OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HURRICANE ILEANA POKES ITSELF INTO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH OF THE WEST TEXAS TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS AGAINST THE EAST CENTRAL MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 23N97W A LITTLE BIT NORTH OF TAMPICO. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... ABOUT 250 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTRAL YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. LINGERING PRECIPITATION AFTER EARLIER STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COASTAL WATERS. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING/DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. LINGERING/DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION ALSO FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 83W AND THE BORDER OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA/EAST TEXAS IN THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 34N70W 32N80W 32N85W 35N94W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N62W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N77W IN BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS/NORTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA. EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF JAMAICA. NOW ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CUBA WEST OF 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ONLY A FEW CELLS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE LOW CENTER ON ITS SOUTHEASTERLY SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE FLOW AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N49W TO 27N50W...TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 25N62W...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO A 19N77W CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THIS TROUGH...COVERING THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA/ GEORGIA/THE CAROLINAS. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS NEAR 21.9N 41.1W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 16 KT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS FOUND ALSO FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. $$ MT