000 AXNT20 KNHC 250000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE AT 24/2100 UTC IS NEAR 12.9N 62.4W...OR ABOUT 135 NM SOUTHWEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 395 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN...FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 56W-65W. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...RAIN BANDS TRAILING THE CENTER WILL BE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 24/2100 UTC IS NEAR 21.3N 39.5W...OR ABOUT 940 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS..MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 17 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 38W-41W. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED. ...TROPICAL WAVES... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 16N16W...IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. A WAVE IS THUS LIKELY TO BE ADDED TO THE 25/0000 UTC MAP THROUGH THE LOW. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF SENEGAL FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 13W-19W. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE EXISTS OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA...BUT THIS MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY NEAR THE WAVE AXIS IN THE CARIBBEAN IS MINIMAL...AND OVERALL THE WAVE POSITION IN THE CARIBBEAN IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE TO DUE FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW OVER THE AREA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE SEEN OVER S AMERICA WITHIN 200NM OF THE AXIS. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH THIS WAVE IS MUCH MORE EVIDENT IN THE EPAC PORTION JUST OFF THE W COAST OF COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 11N40W 12N60W 12N64W TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST NEAR 11N74W. A SMALL PORTION OF THE ITCZ IS ALSO EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 11N76W 10N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 14W-19W...WHICH MAY BE GETTING SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 35W-44W...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED W OF THIS AREA THROUGH THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING N INTO THE SRN CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-84W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DOMINATING MUCH OF THE W/SW GULF THIS EVENING...WHILE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DOMINATING THE NW AND ERN PORTIONS FROM HIGH CENTERS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA...RESPECTIVELY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES SEEMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE WRN GULF FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 89W-95W. ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAVE WARMED THIS EVENING...THOUGH A NEW CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM THE YUCATAN. A WEAK 1016MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N89W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLC...ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS/LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER 15-20KT WINDS EXPECTED BY TOMORROW/SATURDAY IN THE SW GULF AS THE ATLC HIGH INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...AND A PORTION OF THE ITCZ AXIS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THESE FEATURES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SEEN OVER THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN. FAIRLY DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR AND FAIR WEATHER IS DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 64W-84W. MUCH OF THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH ERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. UPPER NE FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON THE W OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITHIN 100 NM OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...15-25KT TRADE FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...AS THE SW PORTION OF THE ATLC HIGH INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ/COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER ARE NOTED FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 65W AND THE SE US COAST. THE STRONGEST OF THESE ARE JUST BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA...AND A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLC STATES AND NW ATLC OCEAN. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SEEN NEAR 29N50W...BUT IS ONLY GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200NM OF ANY SIDE OF THE LOW. THE EAST SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW IS INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING W FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA...TO PRODUCE THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER DEBBY. THE REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER OUR ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA IS DOMINATED BY THE S AND SW PORTIONS OF A 1027MB AZORES HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N29W. $$ WILLIS