000 AXNT20 KNHC 241805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 24/1500 UTC IS NEAR 20.4N 37.8W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 17 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS 955 NM/1535 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. FOR MORE DETAILS READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 37W-39W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY. RESIDENTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SQUALLS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 57W-63W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE DEPICTS THE LEADING EDGE OF AFRICAN DUST THAT EXTENDS E ALL THE WAY TO AFRICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 76W-79W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER S NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND THE E PACIFIC FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 82W-87W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N30W 11N50W 11N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 13W-16W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ TO SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W. 10-15 KT WINDS ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 93W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 87W-92W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 81W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... DIFFLUENCE FROM TWO SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE. ONE LOW IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 26N88W. THE OTHER IS IS OVER THE GULF OF CAMPECHE NEAR 23N96W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 86W-88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N76W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW TO HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N57W. THAT PUTS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N60W UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO ALL MOVE W AND BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DOMINATE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS AT 38N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 30N50W 27N75W. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 73W-78W. AFRICAN DUST IS OVER A VERY LARGE AREA FROM 5N-35N BETWEEN 15W-40W...AND FROM 5N-23N BETWEEN 50W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N61W. A SIMILAR UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N47W. SLY UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS NOW OVER T.S. DEBBY WEAKENING THE STORM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC E OF 32W. $$ FORMOSA