000 AXNT20 KNHC 241110 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 24/0900 UTC IS NEAR 19.6N 36.3W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 17 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS 735 NM/1360 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. FOR MORE DETAILS READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS FORMED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W...FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 58W AND 59W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TODAY. RESIDENTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SQUALLS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA/HAITI/JAMAICA ARE NEAR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS PRECIPITATION PROBABLY IS NOT RELATED TO THE WAVE ONLY. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE ALSO IS AT THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 11N16W 10N30W 9N40W 11N51W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME CELLS RIGHT AT THE COAST OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN LAND AND 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE...SOME WEAKENING WITH TIME... FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SWIRLING AROUND THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA AT 10N TO 25N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 80W AND 95W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. ANOTHER LOW CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPINS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HURRICANE ILEANA ACROSS MEXICO SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICO LOW CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WEST CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE ATLANTIC-TO-NORTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SPILLS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS SPINNING AROUND THE 16N81W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE 16N81W LOW CENTER. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS BEING GENERATED BY EITHER OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N48W TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 28N49W...TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 28N57W...TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 25N62W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE AREA OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS/GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...TO A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW CENTER NEAR 16N81W...AND FINALLY TO NORTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THIS TROUGH...COVERING THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA/GEORGIA/THE CAROLINAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND T.S. DEBBY AND THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 34N47W TO THE TURKS/CAICOS. THE MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW IN THIS AREA IS LARGELY EASTERLY...PUSHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITH IT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR NEAR 31N25W. DRY AIR IS FOUND ALSO FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W. $$ MT