000 AXNT20 KNHC 240622 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 24/0300 UTC IS NEAR 18.8N 34.7W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 16 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS 635 NM/ 1175 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. FOR MORE DETAILS READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS FORMED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM ON THURSDAY. RESIDENTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W...IN BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND JAMAICA...IN BETWEEN NORTHERN HAITI AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS/GREAT INAGUA BANK. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH ENTERS THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED ACCORDING TO HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS...AND AT 24/0000 UTC THE WAVE WAS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE JUST OFFSHORE NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 11N16W 9N40W 11N51W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME CELLS RIGHT AT THE COAST OF GUINEA JUST AWAY FROM SIERRA LEONE FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN THE COAST AND 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...WEAKENING WITH TIME...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AND FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SWIRLING AROUND THE LOW CENTER FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA AT 10N TO 25N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 80W AND 95W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPINS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HURRICANE ILEANA ACROSS MEXICO SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO LOW CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE MEXICO WEST COAST...AND IN INTERIOR SECTIONS NORTH OF 20N. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 80W. THE HIGH CENTER IS IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS HIGH CENTER REACHES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN BETWEEN THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST...STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACCOMPANY THE 69W/70W TROPICAL WAVE. THE 82W/83W TROPICAL WAVE IS NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N47W TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 29N56W...TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 26N61W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE AREA OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS/GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N80W EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THIS TROUGH...COVERING THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA/GEORGIA/THE CAROLINAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND T.S. DEBBY AND THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 34N47W TO THE TURKS/CAICOS. THE MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW IN THIS AREA IS LARGELY EASTERLY...PUSHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITH IT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR NEAR 31N25W. DRY AIR IS FOUND ALSO FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W. $$ MT