000 AXNT20 KNHC 231105 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 23/0900 UTC IS NEAR 15.9N 30.1W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 14 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS 335 NM/625 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. FOR MORE DETAILS READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC. DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF DEBBY SUGGEST THAT ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 29W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 53W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SWIRLING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS WAVE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN 44W AND 55W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. RESIDENTS WHO LIVE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 17N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. THE CELL OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 21N81W JUST SOUTH OF CUBA MAY BE MORE RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ANTICYCLONE AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS/GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAN TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W ARE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 16N16W 14N24W 12N30W 8N40W 9N49W 9N52W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 16W...FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 40W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA AT 13N TO 25N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 81W AND 95W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPINS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HURRICANE ILEANA ACROSS MEXICO SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO LOW CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER LOW CENTER...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN AREAS OF DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER IN THE GULF WATERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 80W. THE HIGH CENTER IS IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS HIGH CENTER REACHES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN BETWEEN THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST...STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACCOMPANY THE 65W/66W TROPICAL WAVE. THE 82W TROPICAL WAVE IS NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT. INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA... IN THE AREA OF THE ITCZ AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF WESTERN PANAMA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N47W TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 30N53W...TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 27N60W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE AREA OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS/GREAT INAGUA ISLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THIS TROUGH...COVERING THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA/GEORGIA/THE CAROLINAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND T.S. DEBBY AND THE 34N48W-TURKS/CAICOS TROUGH. THE MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW IN THIS AREA IS LARGELY EASTERLY...PUSHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITH IT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR NEAR 31N25W. DRY AIR IS FOUND ALSO FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W. $$ MT