000 AXNT20 KNHC 230619 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 23/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF T.S. DEBBY IS NEAR 15.2N 28.9W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 16 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS 260 NM/485 KM WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. FOR MORE DETAILS READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC. DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF DEBBY SUGGEST THAT ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 29W AND 30W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN OCCURRING FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 28W AND 29W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SWIRLING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS WAVE FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF IMPROVING ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. RESIDENTS WHO LIVE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. THE CELL OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 21N81W JUST SOUTH OF CUBA MAY BE MORE RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ANTICYCLONE AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS/GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAN TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W ARE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 16N17W 15N24W 11N30W 8N38W 9N49W 9N52W 10N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 25W AND 38W...AND FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA AT 13N TO 25N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 81W AND 95W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPINS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HURRICANE ILEANA ACROSS MEXICO SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO LOW CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER LOW CENTER...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN AREAS OF DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 5 TO 6 HOURS AGO HAS BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT SOME STILL IS LINGERING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 80W. THE HIGH CENTER IS IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS HIGH CENTER REACHES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN BETWEEN THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST...STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACCOMPANY THE 64W/65W TROPICAL WAVE. THE 80W/81W TROPICAL WAVE IS NOT BRINGING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA AND EXTREME EASTERN PANAMA FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...IN THE AREA OF THE ITCZ AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF WESTERN PANAMA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N48W TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 31N54W...TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 28N61W TO 25N68W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE AREA OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS/GREAT INAGUA ISLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THIS TROUGH...COVERING THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA/GEORGIA/THE CAROLINAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND T.S. DEBBY AND THE 34N48W-TURKS/CAICOS TROUGH. THE MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW IN THIS AREA IS LARGELY EASTERLY...PUSHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITH IT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR NEAR 31N25W. DRY AIR IS FOUND ALSO FROM 27N TO 34N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W. $$ MT