000
AXNT20 KNHC 190006
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 18W 
S OF 19N MOVING W AT 10 KT.  POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS...AND UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE 
WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 20W-23W.  

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W SOUTH OF 19N 
MOVING W 10 KT.  INVERTED-V IMAGERY IS NOTED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.   
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 55W 
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 57W-59W.   

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 88W SOUTH OF 20N 
MOVING W 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA 
FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 83W-87W.  
    
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 11N20W 9N30W 10N45W 9N60W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 28W-35W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 
38W-41W...AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 45W-50W.  

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N89W 
25N93W 20N94W MOVING W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-28N 
BETWEEN 88W-93W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S 
LOUISIANA FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 89W-94W.  THUNDERSTORMS OVER 
FLORIDA HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED NOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 
23N94W MOVING W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN 
90W-102W.  EXPECT... CONTINUED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS 
CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SEE ABOVE.  
ELSEWHERE...THE ITCZ IS ACTIVE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA ALONG 9N BETWEEN 60W-90W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA... 
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 60W-90W.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST W OF 
JAMAICA NEAR 19N80W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
CENTER.  WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND 
INFLUENCE CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO 
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN...S AMERICA...AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE ITCZ AND A NEW TROPICAL WAVE 
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.    

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N80W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 80W-82W.  FURTHER 
E... A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N62W.  A WEAKENING SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N38W 27N40W.  NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N76W.  
CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  A LARGE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 
26N60W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 18N-33N BETWEEN 52W-70W.  A SMALL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
10N58W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE 
CENTER.  A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC E OF 
40W. 

$$
FORMOSA