000 AXNT20 KNHC 172355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 35W-39W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE IS NOTED. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 43W-52W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 75W-78W...AND FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 79W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 84W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA ...AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 78W-85W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 12N30W 10N40W 10N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 13W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 84W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER S LOUISIANA FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 91W-93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W MOVING W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 86W-98W. EXPECT... CONTINUED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE NRN GULF STATES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF WRN CUBA SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...THE ITCZ IS ACTIVE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 8N BETWEEN 60W-90W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 60W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 23N61W. NLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N AND E OF 70W. ANOTHER SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND INFLUENCE THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN...S AMERICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE ITCZ. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 78W-80W. FURTHER E... A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N61W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 26N65W 27N69W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 26N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 52W-56W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N40W 27N43W 26N48W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 23N61W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N52W. A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. $$ FORMOSA