000 AXNT20 KNHC 171816 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N33W. A SECOND LOW CENTER IS NEAR 16N32W. THESE TWO LOW CENTERS ACCOMPANIED THE WAVE YESTERDAY ALSO. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W IN BROAD SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A BROAD FIELD OF SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVERS THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NEAR 21N82W IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS ARE NEAR THIS SWIRL. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 12N15W 13N24W 13N30W 12N35W 10N44W 10N52W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM GUYANA NEAR 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FEATURE IS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 30N96W JUST NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON TEXAS. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA WITH THE 30N96W HIGH CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W...AND FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ON TOP OF CUBA NEAR 22N80W. CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 12N EAST OF 70W...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N61W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. A SEPARATE CELL OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA/COSTA RICA...IN AN AREA OF THE ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 15N86W IN EASTERN HONDURAS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EXISTS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 93W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PULLING SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS WITH THE 10N-14N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 22N61W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N78W ABOUT 60 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY AND THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS MAY AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 31N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N78W 30N75W 32N72W. A 1018 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N27W WITH NO NEARBY DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 32N39W TO 27N44W AND 26N48W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 26N48W TO 30N56W...AND TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N61W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N66W...AND THEN IT CURVES NORTHWARD TO 34N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N51W 30N56W...AND FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ABOUT 150 NM NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS ALONG THE LINE 4N25W 15N29W. $$ MT