000 AXNT20 KNHC 170558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 20 KT IN A FEW SPOTS. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING AND INVERTED V PATTERN IS NOTED WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WAS NOTED AT 0000 UTC NEAR 16N31W...BUT THESE HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINING MINIMAL. WINDS AT BUOY 41041 HAVE BEEN VEERING FROM ENE TO E OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...SUGGESTING THE WAVE AXIS IS VERY CLOSE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR THE NRN PORTION OF THE AXIS NEAR ERN CUBA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE IS A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN ERN CUBA AND THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N75W. THE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED HISPANIOLA EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS DIMINISHED. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 77W AND 84W...WITH ONE CLUSTER NOW AFFECTING COASTAL NICARAGUA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 13N30W 13N32W 10N43W 9N45W...AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 9N71W. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN 250NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 33W AND 43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO SEEN FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION THAT WAS NOTED IN THE NW GULF OFF THE COAST OF WRN LOUISIANA AT 0000 UTC HAS SINCE DIMINISHED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE STILL NOTED IN THE WRN HALF OF THE GULF FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW SEEN SPINNING IN THE MIDDLE GULF NEAR 26N87W AND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA...ALONG WITH LIFT S OF A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. A WEAK 1012MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 25N88W...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NNE THROUGH THIS LOW FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 29N86W. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN WITHIN 200NM OF ANY SIDE OF THIS LOW/TROUGH...WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NOTED. THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE WEAK SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY W OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXTENDING S THROUGH ERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT LIES IN THE SW PORTION OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA...AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS IS ALSO LIKELY GETTING SUPPORT FROM THE ITCZ AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER HONDURAS. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SURGING WESTWARD FROM THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER. UPPER WESTERLY FLOW IS HOVERING MUCH OF THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW JUST SW OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER HONDURAS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE ERN CARIBBEAN AROUND THE ATLC UPPER LOW NEAR 22N61W. 10 TO 20 KT TRADE FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AS THE SW PORTION OF THE ATLC HIGH INTERACTS WITH A 1008MB LOW OVER NW VENEZUELA. LIGHTER WINDS OBSERVED IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IN TACT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1012MB SURFACE LOW OFF OF SOUTH CAROLINA REMAINS LIMITED. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS SEEN SPINNING NEAR 30N61W...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THIS LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 150NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 68W. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 29N54W. A DISTINCT UPPER LOW IS SEEN SPINNING NEAR 21N60W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THIS UPPER LOW FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC FROM 7N TO 30N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 50W. THIS REGION IS ALSO DOMINATED BUT VAST FAIR WEATHER...AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. $$ WILLIS