000 AXNT20 KNHC 170005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N76W DRIFTING W. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 77W-78W. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUD WITH CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A BROAD FIELD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. AGAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 69W-73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 73W-77W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 14N30W 10N40W 8N50W 8N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 47W-54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 57W-62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 80W-83W. A 1015 MB LOW IS OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 90W-94W. ANOTHER 1015 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER GEORGIA NEAR 33N84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 83W-86W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W MOVING W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 21N-33N BETWEEN 80W-92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...W OF 92W...HAS UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW. EXPECT... CONTINUED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOWS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF HISPANIOLA SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...THE ITCZ IS ACTIVE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 8N BETWEEN 60W-90W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND VENEZUELA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 60W-72W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA... NICARAGUA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 77W-87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N59W. NLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 12N AND E OF 70W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N77W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 70W-90W. EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND INFLUENCE CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN...S AMERICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 3N-14N BETWEEN 60W-85W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. FURTHER E... A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N63W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW ALONG 26N64W 30N68W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 31N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N40W 28N45W 28N50W 31N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N58W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N45W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N33W. A RIDGE IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N E OF 25W. $$ FORMOSA