000 AXNT20 KNHC 160009 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW IS NEAR 31N76W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S TO THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA ALONG 27N77W 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY IF NECESSARY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N24W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 23W-29W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN IS NOTED. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 37W-42W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 69W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 66W-70W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 19N16W 11N30W 9N40W 11N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 15W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 42W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 88W-92W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 20N88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST NEAR 30N80W. NLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS UPPER LEVEL NELY FLOW. EXPECT... CONTINUED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF PUERTO RICO SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...A 1006 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 75W-85W...MOSTLY DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW AND TO AN ITCZ AXIS THAT EXTENDS W ALONG 9N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N57W. NLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 12N AND E OF 65W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 65W-85W. EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND INFLUENCE HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN...S AMERICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 60W-85W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. FURTHER E... A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N61W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N66W 31N70W 31N75W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 31N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N23W 27N34W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AS MENTIONED ABOVE... DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE ARE CENTERED NEAR 30N80W... AND 20N57W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N45W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W. A RIDGE IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N E OF 30W. $$ FORMOSA