000 AXNT20 KNHC 151049 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE 1012 MB BROAD SURFACE LOW IS JUST SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N21W ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL FORMATION IF IT DOES OCCUR WILL BE SLOW AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MARGINAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE 14N20W-14.5N23W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROADER AREA FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 18W-24W WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS SLIGHTLY VISIBLE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THUS THERE ARE NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 66W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 64W-67W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED AND IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 94W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N15W 8N34W 8N44W 12N56W ALONG THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS PANAMA JUST S OF COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS ACROSS THE ATLC TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NE GULF THIS MORNING COMPLEMENTS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THEN NE TO THE LOUISIANA COAST. THIS IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NE GULF N OF 23N E OF 90W WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFF SE LOUISIANA N OF 26N FROM 87W-90W. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT OFF LOW/TROUGH IN THE W ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE E GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL OVER CENTRAL TEXAS JUST CLIPS THE NW GULF. THE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A 1016 MB HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N93W. CARIBBEAN SEA... NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE W COAST OF HONDURAS COVERING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 78W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 16N68W AND EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W/65W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 11N FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER COSTA RICA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN THAT AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS DRY AGAIN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM THE E. MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... CUT OFF UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS IN THE W ATLC FROM 32N78W SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 29N75W SW THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N78W CONTINUING W ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 30N FROM 50W-70W. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N49W THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 28N62W TO NEAR 30N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC S OF 30N FROM 60W-70W ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W IN SPITE OF THE RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 21N55W COVERING THE AREA FROM 15N-27N BETWEEN 46W-60W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 52W-59W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM TRINIDAD ACROSS BARBADOS TO 17N59W. A PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW IN THE NE ATLC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N24W TO 26N39W ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW IS N WELL N OF THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM AFRICA. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH REMAINING NEAR 27N46W. DRY/STABLE AIR LIES ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE 1012 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION BEING DRAWN N TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS COMPLIMENTS OF THE E ATLC UPPER RIDGE. $$ WALLACE