000 AXNT20 KNHC 150549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE 1012 MB BROAD SURFACE LOW IS JUST S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N22W ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL FORMATION IF IT DOES OCCUR WILL BE SLOW AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MARGINAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 17W-25W WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MOVING OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ANALYZED ALONG 30W...HOWEVER THE WAVE HAS BROADENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND MAY ACTUALLY BE CLOSER TO 33W AT 15/0000 UTC MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS SLIGHTLY VISIBLE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THUS THERE ARE NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE 13N69W-20N64W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO AND IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 92W-95W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 12N26W 9N40W 12N62W ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA TO JUST S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150-200 NM OF THE AXIS 30W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT COMPLEMENTS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA THEN NE TO THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA COAST. THIS IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NE GULF N OF 24N E OF 90W WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 26N83W-30N85W. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IN THE W ATLC THAT EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER LEVEL OVER CENTRAL TEXAS JUST CLIPS THE NW GULF. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN JUST CLIPS THE FAR SE GULF. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SW GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THIS ALL HAS COMBINED TO SET UP AN AREA OF A CULL OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A 1016 MB HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE W GULF NEAR 26N92W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED JUST SW OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N83W WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NEAR 16N68W AND EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W/65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER COSTA RICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN THAT AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS DRY AGAIN TONIGHT. MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH N OF THE REGION AND IS CENTERED ALONG THE SE COAST OF THE US AND EXTENDS TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH FROM LAST NIGHT HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD COVERING THE W ATLC N OF 30N FROM 55W-70W. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N50W THROUGH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N62W TO A WELL ESTABLISHED 1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N74W THEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N78W CONTINUING W ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH W OF 73W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT E OF THE 1014 MB LOW. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC S OF 30N FROM 60W-75W ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W/65W IN SPITE OF THE RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 21N54W COVERING THE AREA FROM 15N27N BETWEEN 46W-58W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM BARBADOS TO 20N54W. A PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW IN THE NE ATLC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N25W TO 28N34W ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW IS N WELL N OF THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM AFRICA. ALSO AT THE SURFACE... THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE ATLC HAS FINALLY BROKEN DOWN WITH A 1020 MB HIGH REMAINING NEAR 27N50W. DRY/STABLE AIR LIES ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE 1012 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION BEING DRAWN N TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS COMPLIMENTS OF THE E ATLC UPPER RIDGE. $$ WALLACE