000 AXNT20 KNHC 142327 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1009 MB BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EMERGED OFF AFRICA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE WEAKENED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WNWWARD NEAR 15 KT. BASED ON SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS...THIS WAVE/LOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONVECTIVE OVER AFRICA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IS ONE OF THE MORE VIGOROUS WAVES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 30W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITH AN INVERTED V-PATTERN REMAINS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE CONTINUED FAIR STRUCTURE OF THIS WAVE... DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED AS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND NEAR THE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W/63W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. OVER THE WEEKEND THIS WAVE BECAME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING ON THE WAVE. HOWEVER...IT HAS BECOME MUCH MORE DISORGANIZED TODAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FIZZLING AND DEEP MOISTURE BEING VERY MINIMAL AS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT. THE WAVE STILL HAS SOME STRUCTURE WITH CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ABOUT THE AXIS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING THROUGH SRN MEXICO IS ALONG 92W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS IT APPEARS TO BE GETTING MASKED BY THE CLOUDINESS IN THE WAKE OF THE EPAC WAVE AND SFC LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE W. OVERALL VERY LITTLE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N21W 8N37W 9N50W 12N61W. BESIDES FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W-41W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 46W-56W ENHANCED BY A LARGE UPPER LOW TO THE N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS AN UNUSUALLY FAR S OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN PORTION. AS OF 18 UTC...THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LOSING A TEMP AND HUMIDITY GRAD IN THE GULF SO IT WAS ANALYZED AS A TROF WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC TO A 1014 MB LOW IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W ACROSS S FLORIDA NWWARD TO THE FL/AL LINE NEAR 30N87.5W. THIS TROF IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS APPROXIMATELY WITHIN 150 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE OVER S FLORIDA WHERE NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE PUSHING SWARD TO THE FL KEYS. A PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 88W-91W MOVING WSWWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS FLOWING CLOCKWISE AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE CNTRL/WRN GULF NEAR 25N91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...VERY DRY AIR IS SURGING DOWN THE FL PENINSULA ON THE SE SIDE OF AN OHIO VALLEY UPPER HIGH. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER SRN TEXAS BRINGING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 24N W OF 95W. ELSEWHERE...FAIRLY DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO HANG AROUND IN THE ERN GULF TOMORROW AS THE SFC TROF REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CNTRL CUBA TO THE WRN CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N86W. THE UPPER RIDGE LIES TO THE E OF THE TROF WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OVERALL...DRY AIR ALOFT LIES ABOVE MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SOME ORGANIZED WEATHER IN THE REGION. ONE IS IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...BUT THERE ARE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 62W-68W AS THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT. THE OTHER AREA IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE THEY ARE PATCHES OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MAINLY CONTRIBUTED TO UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE CARIBBEAN TROF AND SE U.S. RIDGE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. TRADE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN CARIBBEAN WAVE WILL SPREAD INTO THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N52W 29N67W 29N74W THEN AS A SFC TROF TO S FLORIDA. THREE SFC LOWS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE FRONT. THE ERN-MOST LOW IS 1014 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N61W. THIS LOW IS VERY WEAK AS IT IS MAINLY A SMALL LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MORE ORGANIZED TO THE E OF THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N74W AND A 1013 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THESE SYSTEMS ARE MORE ACTIVE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-30N W OF 73W TO S FLORIDA. AT THE MOMENT...THE 1012 MB LOW HAS A MORE DISCERNIBLE LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. MODELS KEEP THIS AREA RATHER STATIONARY OR DRIFT IT NWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BROAD LOW PRES AREA AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME GRADUALLY MORE FAVORABLE. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...A LINGERING WEAK SFC TROUGH DRAPED FROM A STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW S OF THE AZORES EXTENDS ALONG 32N26W 28N33W. THIS BOUNDARY IS ONLY SPARKING A LINE OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. BESIDES FOR THE WAVES AND SPECIAL FEATURE...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING CONTROLS MUCH OF THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N47W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SPINNING NEAR 26N72W. AN UPPER HIGH IS EXTENDING NORTH FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. A LARGE DISTINCT UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N52W. THIS LOW IS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE S SIDE OF THE LOW FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 50W-60W. ANOTHER WEAKER DRIER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N37W. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 20N19W AND EXTENDS W TO NEAR 40W. $$ CANGIALOSI