000 AXNT20 KNHC 141804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A VIGOROUS 1009MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND HEAVY SQUALLS BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TOMORROW. INTERESTS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE STILL EXHIBITS AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD FIELD...BUT CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ VICINITY REMAINS LIMITED. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 20N...NOW BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN..MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS...THOUGH LOW CLOUD MOTIONS AND THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS DO NOT REVEAL A SURFACE LOW...AND THUS IT HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE 12Z MAP. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...WITH THE STRONGEST SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED NEAR 14N66W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING THROUGH GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ALONG 90W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE TODAY AND APPEARS TO BE GETTING MASKED BY THE CLOUDINESS IN THE WAKE OF THE EPAC WAVE ALONG 106W. OVERALL VERY LITTLE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITHIN 200NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N21W 10N29W 9N32W 9N45W TO NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 8N60W. OUTSIDE OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REGION WITHIN 200NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W AND THE AFRICAN COAST. THE MOST NOTABLE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA IS THE AREA FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 39W AND 59W...AND A SMALL CLUSTER NEAR 12N26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NE AND E GULF THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE NE GULF BETWEEN SW FLORIDA AND COASTAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION THAT EXTENDED INTO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING FROM SRN MEXICO HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR SAN ANGELO TEXAS IS AFFECTING THE WRN GULF. THE NE GULF IS DOMINATED BY UPPER NE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...CONFLUENCE...AND FAIR WEATHER...FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 85W AND 95W. A 1017MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N91W IS PRODUCING FAIRLY LIGHT CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE PORTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WRN CARIBBEAN THE LAST FEW DAYS IS STILL EVIDENT...THOUGH APPEARS AS IT IS BECOMING SQUASHED/ELONGATED BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES. AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS PRODUCING EASTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN. OVERALL MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER. A SMALL PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 14N66W IS MOVING AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. THE OTHER AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN IS JUST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA WHICH MAY BE GETTING SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE ITCZ AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...15 TO 25 KT TRADES CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH QUIKSCAT DATA DID SHOW SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS THE S PORTION OF THE ATLC HIGH INTERACTS WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THREE SURFACE LOWS ARE ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC MAP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENE FROM THE SE FLORIDA COAST. THE FIRST IS A 1013MB LOW JUST NORTH OF THE NW BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THIS LOW TODAY FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 77W-80W. ANOTHER CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N74W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. THE THIRD LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N63W...BUT VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SPINNING NEAR 25N71W. AN UPPER HIGH IS EXTENDING NORTH FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. A DISTINCT UPPER LOW IS SEEN SPINNING NEAR 23N51W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED JUST W OF THIS UPPER LOW FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 20N19W AND EXTENDS W TO NEAR 40W. A 1019MB SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 26N47W. MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH AND THE UPPER HIGH OFF AFRICA IS EXPERIENCING DRY AIR/FAIR WEATHER...FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. $$ WILLIS