000 AXNT20 KNHC 141034 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER WITH THE RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE THERE IS NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 20N WITH A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER THE LOW POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 66W. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 88W/89W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE APPEARS WELL DEFINED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W OF 87W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N14W 9N25W 8N45W 7N59W ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA TO OVER PANAMA AND COST RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N E OF 20W TO JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 47W-59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 13W-19W AND BETWEEN 29W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NE GULF THIS MORNING COMPLEMENTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE THEN NE TO INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 90W. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC...FAR E US...AN PUSHING TO OVER NE FLORIDA THUS WEAKENING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLC WITH A 1017 MB HIGH IN THE SE GULF. UPPER LEVEL OVER N MEXICO JUST CLIPS THE W GULF. AN UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN JUST CLIPS THE SE GULF AND HAS SET UP AN AREA OF A CULL OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE CUTS ACROSS S MEXICO TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE GIVING THE W BAY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 20N FROM 93W-97W. THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE GULF IS RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N83W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN AREA W OF 78W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA TO OVER GUATEMALA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THESE FEATURES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W/61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN THAT AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS DRY AGAIN THIS MORNING. MODERATE/STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E US AND W ATLC N OF 28N W OF 65W. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N55W THROUGH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N63W TO A WELL ESTABLISHED 1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N75W CONTINUING W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS JUST S OF THE FRONT FROM FLORIDA E TO NEAR 70W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 21N65W ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W/61W IN SPITE OF THE RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT. THE E ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM AFRICA. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW NEAR 27N33W WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N27W TO 28N37W. AT THE SURFACE... WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLC WITH A 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 24N43W. DRY/STABLE AIR LIES ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. $$ WALLACE