000 AXNT20 KNHC 140538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 26W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 20N WITH A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER THE LOW POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-18N INCLUDING SOME OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 87W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE APPEARS WELL DEFINED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 12N24W 8N41W 12N58W ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/180 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 19W TO JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 28W-35W AND CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 45W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF TONIGHT COMPLEMENTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE THEN NE TO THE N/CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO S FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND FAR E US WEAKENING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS STRETCHED FROM THE ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. A 1016 MB HIGH IS IN THE GULF NEAR 26N89W AND IS STILL KEEPING WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. ALSO IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER N MEXICO HAS RETREATED W AND JUST CLIPS THE W GULF. AN UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN JUST CLIPS THE SE GULF AND HAS SET UP AN AREA OF A CULL OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N82W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN AREA W OF 77W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS NOW ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA TO OVER GUATEMALA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THESE FEATURES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC JUST N OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W/60W AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 80W DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN THAT AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS DRY TONIGHT. TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE PASSED FEW DAYS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E US AND W ATLC N OF 29N W OF 65W. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N58W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N75W CONTINUING W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-29N W OF 74W TO OVER FLORIDA. AN UPPER HIGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 22N63W ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W/60W IN SPITE OF THE RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT. ELSEWHERE...BESIDES FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES AND ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION...VERY LITTLE UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN AGAIN TONIGHT. THE E ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM AFRICA. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW NEAR 26N34W WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N29W TO 28N38W. AT THE SURFACE... WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLC WITH A PAIR OF 1019 MB HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 26N33W AND 27N46W SEPARATED BY THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH. DRY/STABLE AIR LIES ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. $$ WALLACE