000
AXNT20 KNHC 111813
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 17W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...UPPER AIR 
SOUNDINGS... AND HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 12W-17W.   

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE 
CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V-SHAPE CURVATURE 
HOWEVER LACKS DEEP CONVECTION DUE A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-13N 
BETWEEN 48W-53W.   

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 71W S OF 20N MOVING W 
NEAR 20 KT.  THIS WAVE ALSO HAS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V-SHAPE 
CURVATURE.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE APEX 
ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 69W-73W.  

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 11N20W 8N35W 11N47W 10N60W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 18W-24W.  
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 
35W-41W.    

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 28N.  10 KT WINDS WITH MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER COVERS THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N95W MOVING W.  A SMALL 
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER WITHIN 
30 NM RADIUS OF 26N94W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN 
83W-100W.  AN AREA OF UPPER AIR MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 
18N-28N BETWEEN 90W-98W. THE REMAINDER OF THE THE GULF HAS 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE TEXAS AND 
LOUISIANA COASTS TOMORROW DUE TO SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  IN ADDITION... A 1006 MB 
LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 75W-80W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER JAMAICA.  SIMILAR SHOWERS DOTS INLAND 
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE MOVING W.  SURFACE WIND 
VELOCITIES ARE 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 
18N83W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER.  AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR PUERTO RICO AT 19N67W.  
CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER.  EXPECT MORE 
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.        

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W.  A 1018 MB 
HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 24N60W.  A 1014 MB 
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N38W.  A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 31N36W 28N40W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 31W-37W.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N30W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A HIGH IS OVER THE 
W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
PUERTO RICO AT 19N67W.  A HIGH IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 
14N52W.  ANOTHER HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 12N33W.  

$$
FORMOSA