000 AXNT20 KNHC 110516 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V-SHAPE CURVATURE HOWEVER LAKES DEEP CONVECTION DUE A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 42W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BROAD UPPER HIGH ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 65W-70W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VENEZUELA. WAVE IS MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC BASIN AND HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 10N21W 12N40W 10N54W 12N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 7N30W-10N42W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N E OF 24W TO JUST INLAND OVER THE COAST OF AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN THE W GULF NEAR 24N95W COVERING THE AREA W OF 85W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SE INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SE UPPER FLOW AND DRY UPPER AIR. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1016 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE SW GULF BUT IS NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...THE GULF IS RELATIVE QUIET TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CENTRAL PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST FROM PANAMA THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER CUBA GIVING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N W OF 77W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS THE GEORGIA COAST SE TO NEAR 24N67W BRINGING WITH IT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER THE SE US. VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC S OF 30N E OF 55W. THE UPPER LOW PREVIOUSLY N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS NOW A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. AN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR BERMUDA WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 33N. THIS IS GIVING THE AREA FROM FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 58W-77W SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N FROM 34W-43W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N36W SW TO 28N42W. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SEVERELY LIMITED. THE REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A SERIES OF HIGHS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 28N33W...A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N55W...AND A 1018 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 27N70W. THIS IS GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MUCH LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY. $$ WALLACE