000 AXNT20 KNHC 100605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A STRONG WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS SET TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS ALONG 59W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT. A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS POORLY ORGANIZED. IT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS SPAN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 58W AND 67W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CHAIN OF ISLANDS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N40W 10N46W 11N48W 12N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 31W AND 42W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS OUT FROM A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND REACHES AT LEAST MOST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ONE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE/EASTERN GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN WATERS SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 80W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 11N14W 10N23W 11N34W 9N40W 10N50W 13N56W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N20W 6N30W 4N40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 70W...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF. CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUNDS EVERYWHERE. ONE TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO FROM THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE COVERED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH OF NICARAGUA. A BROADER AND LARGER SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW HAS PUSHED INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND COVERS THE AREA FROM PUERTO RICO EASTWARD TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...REACHING THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER COVERS AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA EAST OF PUERTO RICO. THAT LOW IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO. SUPERIMPOSE UPON THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE RACING AHEAD OF THE 59W TROPICAL WAVE/ 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL-WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ALONG THE BORDER OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/ ATLANTIC OCEAN...SPREADING CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE 59W TROPICAL WAVE GETS READY TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW CENTER JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AZORES TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 32N49W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE FROM 20N TO 30N EAST OF FLORIDA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS...FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. A SURFACE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N41W. A TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N38W AND 27N42W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N33W TO 25N40W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 26N54W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N71W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. $$ MT