000 AXNT20 KNHC 091105 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED AUG 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE BEST AREA IN ORDER TO SEE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS CLOSE TO THE WAVE. ONE CELL OF PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 15N28W AND ANOTHER CELL IS WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 16N30W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N32W 9N37W 11N41W 12N44W...AND 9N41W 10N44W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE LOW CENTER HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING ONLY AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE. THE POSSIBILITIES OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ARE BECOMING FEWER WITH TIME. THE WAVE STILL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS ACROSS SOME AREAS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO 13N82W. AN EARLIER AREA OF SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED. TWO OTHER ISOLATED CELLS OF PRECIPITATION ARE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 80W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 12N16W 10N32W 10N38W 12N49W 11N54W 10N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 70W...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NOW IS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATER FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. ISOLATED RAIN CELLS ARE BEING PUSHED SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST LOW CENTER... ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE FLORIDA LOW COVERS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EAST OF 90W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEST OF 90W IS EASTERLY AROUND A RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL U.S.A. SOUTHWARD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ONSHORE IN THE AREA BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND TAMPICO. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 92W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO. THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SIX HOURS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH TIME. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE STATE OF JALISCO MEXICO ALSO HAVE BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME. SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION STILL MAY BE LINGERING A BIT NOW. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST LOW CENTER INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOW CENTER TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LOW CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON A SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST AXIS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG THE INTERIOR OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W...IN BETWEEN MONTERIA AND BUCARAMANGA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N80W 11N82W 12N83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOW CENTER NEAR 23N69W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 38N29W ABOUT 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...TO 32N40W...TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 30N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONNECTS A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N51W TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N76W. A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEAR 34N42W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W. NO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER. $$ MT