000 AXNT20 KNHC 081751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE AUG 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N47W...OR ABOUT 725 NM EAST OF WINDWARD ISLANDS...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS MUCH MORE EVIDENT IN TODAYS LOW CLOUD MOTIONS...AS THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT WAS SUPERIMPOSED YESTERDAY IS NOW LESS ACTIVE. MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE N OF 11N. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LIE WITHIN 300NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE S OF 11N. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NORTH OF CUBA THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CARIBBEAN PORTION OF THIS WAVE...LIKELY BEGIN SUPPRESSED BY THE EXTENSIVE DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IN THE VICINITY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER... ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 13N29W 13N32W 12N43W 11N51W TO INLAND THROUGH SOUTH AMERICAN TO NEAR 9N68W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS LESS PROMINENT THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION THAT PUSHED OFF OF SENEGAL LAST NIGHT HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW NOTED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN 13W-21W. ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 30W...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS WEST OF 35W THROUGH THE S AMERICAN COAST. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION LIES NORTH OF THE EPAC PORTION OF THE ITCZ AXIS AFFECTING THE S CARIBBEAN N OF PANAMA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WV IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD EASTERLY FLOW BLANKETING MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH EXTENDING S FROM THE SE US. THE EASTERLY FLOW IS PUSHING THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF QUICKLY TO THE W. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING ONSHORE MEXICO AND TEXAS. THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE/SFC TROUGHING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE GULF NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE BAHAMAS...AND AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO SE FL. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE GENERALLY E 5 TO 15 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A 1022MB HIGH ANALYZED NEAR JACKSON MISSISSIPPI. SIMILAR LIGHT E/SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW...THOUGH SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO THE ERN GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BUT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIES N OF THE CARIBBEAN...ASIDE FROM A NARROW PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN JAMAICA AND ERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AGAIN AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF JAMAICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT AIR BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERLY FLOW ON THE S PORTION OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SE US. MID TO UPPER LEVEL E/SE FLOW IS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN...ON THE SW SIDE OF AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED IN THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 24N67W. AT THE SURFACE...15 TO 25 KT TRADE FLOW DOMINATES ON THE S/SW PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH. THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER 30 KT ENE WINDS JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST AS THE HIGH INTERACTS WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THOUGH THE FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL NE/ENE FLOW IS HOVERING OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SE US AND THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS. THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING THROUGH ERN CUBA AND THE SE BAHAMAS IS INTERACTING WITH THIS UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDING NORTH OF CUBA...THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 24N66W IS PRODUCING CLOCKWISE FLOW IN THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. A SMALL...WEAK UPPER LOW IS SEEN SPINNING NEAR 21N58W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO 50W...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY EXTENDING E TO W ALONG 20N FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO 50W. ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 30W AND THE SPECIAL FEATURE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 1021MB HIGH CENTERS ANALYZED NEAR 30N74W AND 29N65W. THE S PORTION OF A 1031MB HIGH NORTH OF THE AZORES IS ALSO AFFECTING THE EASTERN ATLC. A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 650NM SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THIS LOW IS MINIMAL AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ WILLIS