000 AXNT20 KNHC 081105 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N45W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...POSSIBLY FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE BEST AREA IN ORDER TO SEE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IS FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 26W AND 34W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS AND A BIT NORTHWARD...FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH ROUGHLY HAS BEEN IN THE AREA OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...NOW IS NEAR 25N76W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 15N17W 13N27W 13N30W 12N42W 11N48W 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 22W... AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 26W AND 34W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING RIGHT NOW OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN FACT. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DECREASING IN AERIAL COVERAGE AND THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA ARE WARMING AS THIS AREA OF EARLIER PRECIPITATION MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL. SOME CELLS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN SENEGAL. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 27W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA COAST AND 20W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 70W...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WESTERN MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE TO THE WEST...AND THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS DIMINISHED. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR A SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER...AND STAY WEST OF 94W IN GENERAL. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CONNECTED FROM A BAHAMAS LOW CENTER NEAR 25N76W TO A WEAK YUCATAN PENINSULA/BELIZE LOW CENTER. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE CLEAR AND REALLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULAR MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS NOW HAS BECOME MORE OF A SMALLER-SCALE LOW CENTER SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A COMPARATIVELY WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA/ NORTHERN BELIZE...KICKING UP ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF 68W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN JUST WEST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...ACROSS THOSE COUNTRIES...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER PANAMA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE FLOW AROUND THE 25N76W LOW CENTER. THE RIDGE IS ALONG 20N69W 30N70W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS AND A BIT NORTHWARD...FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 37N29W ABOUT 130 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 32N39W...TO 27N52W...TO A THIRD LOW CENTER NEAR 20N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING AT THE BASE OF THE 37N29W 20N58W TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 68W SOUTH OF 12N. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 26N34W...AND CONTINUES TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N48W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 30N76W...AND EVENTUALLY TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS NEAR 35N41W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 30N TO 36N BETWEEN 36W AND 45W. $$ MT