000 AXNT20 KNHC 080023 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N42W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER. A BAND OF CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER...IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE CENTER...AND IS DISSIPATING. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER SEA TEMPERATURES. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A SEPARATE SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 15N20W. THIS SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY OVER HISPANIOLA EXTENDING NORTH FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 67W-73W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 11N30W 12N42W 9N60W. AN AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 12W-16W MOVING W TOWARDS THE COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER S AND STILL INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 11W-14W MOVING W TOWARDS THE COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 28W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N89W 23N90W MOVING W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 91W-93W. FURTHER E...A PATCH OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W FLORIDA FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 82W-84W MOVING W AND DISSIPATING. EVENING AIRMASS HEATING HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 88W-92W MOVING W. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF ARE PRIMARILY ELY FROM 10-15 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH IS CENTERED INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N90W. ELY UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITH BANDS OF MOISTURE ARE THUS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DOT THE GULF ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA WILL ALSO ADVECT TO THE BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE CONCERNING HISPANIOLA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA PRIMARILY DUE TO INLAND EVENING AIRMASS HEATING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N73W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER W CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 80W-83W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION N OF 14N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SOME NEW TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LINE OF THREE SURFACE LOWS ARE N OF THE AREA ALONG 35N BETWEEN 40W-70W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS ALSO N OF THE AREA...N OF THE AZORES...NEAR 44N26W. THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC THUS HAS MOSTLY LIGHT ELY SURFACE FLOW FROM 20N-30N...W OF 20W TO FLORIDA. A BROAD AREA OF DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC FROM 15N-30N E OF 55W TO AFRICA MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N73W. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 21N56W MOVING W. A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N E OF 40W. $$ FORMOSA