000 AXNT20 KNHC 071103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON AUG 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 06000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N38W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST TO WEST OF THIS LOW CENTER FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW CENTER MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE WAVE AT 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN A FEW CELLS FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM TRINIDAD NEAR 11N61W TO 14N63W 18N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N65W 23N67W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 15N17W 14N20W 12N23W 11N30W 11N35W 11N44W 11N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 70W...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE FAR WEST TEXAS NEAR EL PASO TO HIDALGO DEL PARRAL TO ZACATECAS IN INTERIOR MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N111W 22N109W IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COAST...AND AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST WATERS NEAR 27N TO 32N IN TEXAS BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 140 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS CENTER NORTHWARD TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS IN ONE DIRECTION...AND TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE OTHER DIRECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE SWINGS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N TO 29N EAST OF 92W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WEAK AND SMALL REMNANT SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OF T.D. CHRIS FROM SIX HOURS AGO FINALLY HAS DISAPPEARED...NOT EASY TO FIND. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 87W/88W FROM 22N TO 28N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N71W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N65W 27N71W 24N74W 23N79W 23N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 72W AND 85W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS THE RULE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 82W AND THE AREA AROUND THE 65W/66W TROPICAL WAVE. MOSTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW APPEARS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF PANAMA...WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 37N25W JUST SOUTH OF THE AZORES TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 32N44W TO A THIRD LOW CENTER NEAR 22N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST FROM 28N TO 38N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS EXIST FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 24N32W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 34N40W TO 28N41W AND 24N45W. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N64W. $$ MT