000 AXNT20 KNHC 070600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE WAVE AT 14N. A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 25W AND 26W...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 21W AND 22W. A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N37W MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW CENTER FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W. ANOTHER SUCH MASS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION. THE AREA FORMERLY BETWEEN 41W AND 43W HAS DISSIPATED. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM SAINT VINCENT TO GUADELOUPE...AND FROM ST.KITTS AND NEVIS TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST WEST OF ANGUILLA...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 15N17W 14N19W 12N23W 11N30W 11N35W 11N44W 11N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 70W...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO INTERIOR MEXICO IN BETWEEN SAN LUIS POTOSI AND LEON. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS OF LOS MOCHIS ON THE MEXICO EASTERN PACIFIC COAST...AND A SECOND SIMILAR AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE TO THE NORTH FROM 29N TO 30N ALONG 110W ENCOMPASSING HERMOSILLO MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TO NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WEAKENING PRECIPITATION WAS IN BETWEEN AUSTIN AND COLLEGE STATION TEXAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 90 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS CENTER NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE SWINGS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W. THE WEAK AND SMALL REMNANT SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OF T.D. CHRIS IS NEAR 23.8N 85.4W. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N87W 22N87W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N71W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N66W 27N71W 24N74W 23N78W 23N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS THE RULE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 82W. MOSTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW APPEARS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS BRINGING PRECIPITATION FROM SAINT VINCENT TO ANGUILLA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM THE PANAMA/COLOMBIA BORDER SOUTHWARD FOR 130 NM ALONG THE WESTERN COLOMBIA COAST. BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ ARE IN THIS AREA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 36N25W JUST SOUTH OF THE AZORES TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 33N44W TO A THIRD LOW CENTER NEAR 23N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST FROM 28N TO 37N BETWEEN 38W AND 48W. A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS EXIST FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 52W AND 53W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N28W TO 25N34W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 34N40W TO 25N45W. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N65W. $$ MT