000 AXNT20 KNHC 061754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN AUG 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BEHIND THIS WAVE. CONVECTION/SHOWERS ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ RATHER THAN THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS LIES ALONG 60W WITH SOME TURNING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 57W-61W. SOME CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS ALONG 10N...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER THAT AREA. THE WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT TROUGH MONDAY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER. A WIND SURGE IS FOLLOWING THIS TROPICAL WAVE. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS ELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 11N30W 10N41 10N58W. THERE ARE TWO CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. ONE IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 19W-24W LIKELY RELATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A NEW TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL BE ANALYZED ON THE 1800 UTC MAP. THE DAKAR SOUNDING SHOWS A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW YESTERDAY TO THE SE TODAY. THE SECOND CLUSTER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SENEGAL IN W AFRICA AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 56W-58W BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS ARE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG WESTERN CUBA ALONG 82/83W. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN GULF...FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA FROM AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE SE U.S.. MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS ALONG THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THIS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A TROUGH RUNS SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.D. CHRIS IS OVER WESTERN CUBA ALONG 82/83W...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND W CUBA... INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 80W. AN UPPER LOW NOW LOCATED N OF HISPANIOLA IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE NW CARIBBEAN. WHILE A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 80W-83W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD AND ELONGATED 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N33W OR ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS DRIFTING WESTWARD AT AROUND 9 KT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 75W. AN UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 19N-22W BETWEEN 67W-71W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N FROM 35W-50W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N40W TO 25N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 27N W OF 38W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 23N18W TO NEAR 22N30W AND COVERS THE THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N62W. $$ GR