000 AXNT20 KNHC 060629 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0615 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A NEARLY STATIONARY ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW CENTER IS NEAR 11N30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. ONE BIG BROAD AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY EXISTS FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN 26W AND 41W. ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE SWIRLING AROUND THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACCOMPANIES THIS NUMBER. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 23W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 12N16W 8N24W 8N33W 8N38W 9N46W 11N50W 11N53W 9N58W 9N63W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 23W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO NORTHERN INTERIOR MEXICO IS HELPING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE TROUGH. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA YESTERDAY NOW IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N89W 28N92W 30N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER SOUTH FLORIDA SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...HAVING MOVED FROM CUBA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF T.D. CHRIS IS MOVING FROM CUBA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH FLORIDA. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER IS SURROUNDED BY NOTHING BUT DRY AIR NEAR 14N76W. DRY AIR IS SOUTH OF 18N. LOW CLOUDS ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HINT AT SOME FORM OF SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W SOUTH OF 20N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N TO 33N BETWEEN 61W AND 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 25N68W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PUSHING ITS WAY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 25N68W LOW CENTER IN ORDER TO COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOVE ACROSS 32N TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO 27N...AND THEN CURVE TO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BEYOND GEORGIA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A 34N39W LOW CENTER TO 28N42W TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 26N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER TO A 1016 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 30N42W...AND THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 26N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 25N TO 35N BETWEEN 34W AND 45W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N28W TO 28N32W TO 23N41W. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 28N57W. A RIDGE CONTINUES FROM THIS HIGH CENTER TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA BORDER. $$ MT