000 AXNT20 KNHC 051745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT AUG 05 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ALONG 31W/32W BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. MOST OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBED WEATHER IS WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 25W-38W. A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 52W IS REPOSITIONED ALONG 48W BASED ON SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH IS SHOWING AN INVERTED V CLOUD PATTERN AND SOME TURNING JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 48W-52W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W SOUTH OF 16N...OVER GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BORDER...MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER GUATEMALA AND BELIZE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 11N29W 11N45W 10N51W 9N58W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG 20W FROM 7N-11N PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL. OUT OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...THERE ARE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVING NWWD. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE LOW RUNS FROM 30N-85W TO 26N-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 85W-91W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CORNER OF THE GULF. A DIFFUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REACHES NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. LIGHT SELY SURFACE WIND DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS IS LOCATED NEAR 22N77W OR ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND THE SYSTEM SHOWS NO SIGNS OF REGENERATION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE LOW...REMNANTS OF CHRIS OVER EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N67W AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT MAINLY ON THE ATLC SIDE. PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...ALSO ENHANCING BY THE LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS. THE COLOMBIAN LOW COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OF URABA AND PANAMA. TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N67W. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N48W COVERING MUCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WATERS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FOUND 12N-25N BETWEEN 40W-60W...INCLUDING ALSO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE SE CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW...REMNANTS OF CHRIS NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 38N-45W. SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 25N BETWEEN 62W-67W RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE. A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N57W...PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MAINLY EAST OF 70W. $$ GR