000
AXNT20 KNHC 050608
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS IS NEAR 21.6N 74.0W
AT 05/0300 UTC MOVING WEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
ONE LONE THUNDERSTORM CELL IS NEAR THE ACKLINS ISLANDS.
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 21N66W. THE 
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO/THE ATLANTIC OCEAN/THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N BEYOND
32N BETWEEN 55W AND 74W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW 
CENTER IS NEAR 28N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE GOES FROM 23N BEYOND 32N 
BETWEEN 81W AND 92W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W SOUTH OF 16N...FROM EL SALVADOR
INTO GUATEMALA IN CENTRAL AMERICA...MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE COVERING
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. SOME OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY
BE DUE TO A TROUGH RUNNING FROM THE 28N84W LOW CENTER TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER.

 ...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 14N17W 11N27W 11N44W 9N50W 8N53W 8N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W
AND 37W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND 
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 22W. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXIST FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 44W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W.
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS AREA TO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN TWO CLUSTERS FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. A SECOND LOW CENTER IS THE 
28N84W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
IN TWO CLUSTERS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN 
GEORGIA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR THE BAHAMAS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN 
BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...AND WEAKENING...ARE
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE 
NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BEING SQUEEZED NORTHWARD BY THE LOW 
CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF T.D. CHRIS AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LOW CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 65W...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
TO 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 
32N30W TO 26N43W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N60W
TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 27N...EVENTUALLY 
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO A 1017 MB HIGH CENTER.

$$
MT