000 AXNT20 KNHC 050010 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CHRIS REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS AT 04/2100 UTC IS NEAR 21.4N 72.8W...OR ABOUT 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 330 MILES EAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA...MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 4 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CHRIS REMAINS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR IN THE SHORT-TERM THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WILL BRING CHRIS BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. PRESENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 70W-75W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. UW-CIMMS SAHARAN LAYER ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAIRLY DENSE REGION OF DUST AFFECTING THE WAVE. AN OLD QUIK SCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 11N THAT WILL BE MONITORED. THE GFS MODEL ALSO INITIALIZES A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THIS VICINITY THAT MOVES OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BY 07/0000 UTC. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS THROUGH HONDURAS...AND THE EAST PACIFIC...IS ALONG 88W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND HONDURAS AND INLAND NICARAGUA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 84W-89W. WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 87W-91W. THIS LATTER CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA... OR MAYBE... JUST EVENING AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER INLAND YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 12N35W 9N50W AND INLAND TO SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 17W-20W...AND FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 24W-32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 33W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING IS PRODUCING 5-10 KT SELY SURFACE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 87W-91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED INLAND OVER N FLORIDA AND S GEORGIA FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 82W-86W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 94W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE PREVALENT OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOUT T.D. CHRIS THAT IS NOW N OF HISPANIOLA. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 69W-71W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 72W-876W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. A LARGER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N66W. EXPECT INCREASED CONVECTION OVER E CUBA DUE TO T.S. CHRIS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NE OF T.S. CHRIS NEAR 27N60W. THIS SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE PUTS T.D. CHRIS IN A RELATIVELY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE ENVIRONMENT...AND IS INFLUENCING THE STORMS TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N32W 27N40W 27N60W. A 1028 MB HIGH REMAINS NE OF THE AZORES AT 46N16W. LATEST UW-CIMSS SAHARAN LAYER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF DENSE DUST STRETCHING OUT TO 60W MAINLY N OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N66W. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N45W AFFECTING MUCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 35W-55W. ANOTHER RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA FROM 10N-30N E OF 28W. $$ FORMOSA