000 AXNT20 KNHC 041150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CHRIS HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS AT 04/1200 UTC IS NEAR 21.2N 71.1W MOVING WEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAD HELPED TO PUMP UP CHRIS SIX HOURS AGO WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE IT WAS GOING DOWNHILL HAVE SUBSIDED AGAIN. SOME UPPER LEVEL SHEAR FROM THE CLOSER OF TWO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS...NEAR 22N64W...IS CUTTING INTO T.D. CHRIS. ANOTHER LOW CENTER IN THE OVERALL LARGER AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS NEAR 24N59W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. A SECOND LOW CENTER IS RIGHT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO LOW CENTERS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT ALSO HAPPENS TO BE SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTRUDES INTO THE AREA OF DRY AIR...SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 48W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS/AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE HONDURAS COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 11N15W 12N35W 9N47W 7N52W 6N62W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 4N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. AN ISOLATED CELL OF SHOWERS EXISTS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 56W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN WEST TEXAS NEAR FORT STOCKTON ABOUT 130 NM NORTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING IN INTERIOR MEXICO DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 97W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. A SECOND LOW CENTER IS EASILY SPOTTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER EXISTS WITHIN A 360 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 90W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS IS OFF THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION NOW IS ON THE DOWNHILL SIDE...WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORM CELLS HANGING ON. ONE OF THE MASSES OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SIX HOURS AGO HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS. THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAD BEEN TAKING PLACE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BEING SQUEEZED NORTHWARD BY THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF T.D. CHRIS AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST 28N81W LOW CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N41W 17N53W 8N58W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 26N37W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N46W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 27N... EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. $$ MT