000 AXNT20 KNHC 040605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... T.S. CHRIS HAS STAYED ALIVE THANKS TO A NEW ROUND OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS TAKING PLACE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W...JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS AT 04/0600 UTC IS NEAR 20.8N 69.3W MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE MONA PASSAGE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 23N59W. A SECOND LOW CENTER IS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N80W. THE TROPICAL STORM IS GOING TO BE MOVING IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO LOW CENTERS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT ALSO HAPPENS TO BE SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTRUDES INTO THE AREA OF DRY AIR...SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 48W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RELATED JUST TO THIS WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA WEST COAT FROM NORTHWESTERN PANAMA TO EL SALVADOR TO WESTERN GUATEMALA AND JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO 18N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 11N14W 12N33W 9N46W 8N49W 6N56W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 4N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN WEST TEXAS NEAR FORT STOCKTON ABOUT 120 NM NORTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 99W AND 100W. A SECOND LOW CENTER IS EASILY SPOTTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER EXISTS WITHIN A 350 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 400 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS AT THE EDGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER- TO-NORTH CENTRAL AREA. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION NOW IS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH IN CENTRAL AMERICA IS RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH GOES FROM 22N59W TO 20N63W TO 14N68W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN THE 23N59W LOW CENTER AND THE 28N80W LOW CENTER. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 38N40W...AND ANOTHER LOW CENTER IS NEAR 28N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N41W 17N53W 8N58W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 27N41W TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N60W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. $$ MT