000 AXNT20 KNHC 040011 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND SHEAR HAVE TAKEN ITS TOLL. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS NOW EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED NEAR 20.7 NORTH 68.2 WEST OR ABOUT 195 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AT 03/2100 UTC. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND NORTHERN HAITI THROUGH FRIDAY. DISPLACED...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE REGION S AND SE OF THE CENTER FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 67W-69W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 17N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 81W S OF 13N. SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-9N BETWEEN 80W-82W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 9N30W 7N50W AND INLAND THROUGH SOUTH AMERICAN TO NEAR 5N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 13W-18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 18W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 32W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 31N89W. 10-15 KT SELY SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF AIRMASS CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 87W-92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED INLAND FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE S GEORGIA FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 82W-90W. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 93W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CENTERED NEAR 20N95W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 90W-98W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER CUBA AND FLORIDA FROM 21N-32N E OF 84W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE SRN GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOUT T.S. CHRIS THAT IS NOW NW OF PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION... AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 70W-72W. FURTHER W...A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 84W-88W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY OVER LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 70W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ELY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-90W. EXPECT INCREASED CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO T.S. CHRIS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TOMORROW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NE OF T.S. CHRIS NEAR 27N58W. THIS SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE PUTS T.S. CHRIS IS A RELATIVELY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE ENVIRONMENT...AND ALSO IS INFLUENCING THE STORMS TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N30W 28N40W 27N58W. A 1027 MB HIGH REMAINS NE OF THE AZORES AT 41N21W. LATEST UW-CIMSS SAHARAN LAYER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF DENSE DUST STRETCHING OUT TO 55W MAINLY N OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 73W-84W. FURTHER SE... DISTINCT OUTFLOW IS NOTED ABOVE T.S. CHRIS. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS E OF T.S. CHRIS NEAR 24N60W MOVING W THAT IS PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE STORM. A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N40W AFFECTING MUCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 50W AND THE AFRICAN COAST. $$ FORMOSA