000 AXNT20 KNHC 030615 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM CHRIS CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. SOME SPIRAL BANDS ARE AROUND THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER BECOMING MORE WELL-DEFINED. ITS CENTER IS NEAR 20.0N 65.5W MOVING WEST 7 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITH THIS WAVE AND JUST THIS WAVE ALONE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 73W MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 70W-75W...TO INCLUDE OVER LAKE MARACAIBO. THIS WAVE WILL MOST LIKELY PRODUCE WEATHER OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN TOMORROW AND THEN MOVE INTO THE E PACIFIC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG 96W/97W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS MAINLY NOTED IN THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS TO THE SOUTH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 93W-99W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 8N13W 12N30W 4N51W 5N60W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 16N EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. ONE LOW CENTER IS IN NEAR DEL RIO TEXAS ABOUT 150 NM EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO. A SECOND ONE IS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER EXISTS WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. THE THIRD LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO BE THE BERRY ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS 26N78W FEATURE. CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST FROM JUST NORTH OF ANDROS ISLAND TO JUST NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...BETWEEN THE WESTERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND OFF CAPE ROMANO OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STRETCH FROM LONG KEY AND THE EXUMA CAYS IN THE BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA. A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS ABOUT 150 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 23N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THE BAHAMAS LOW CENTER MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THE END OF 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING INLAND BETWEEN NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA AND INTERIOR MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WHICH GOES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MORE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INTERIOR MEXICO FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W IN TWO CLUSTERS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 320 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF T.S. CHRIS. THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF ANY CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER ON THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON TOP OF T.S. CHRIS MAY BE MINIMAL. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 20N76W 15N83W...EXCEPT FOR NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W BECAUSE OF T.S. CHRIS. UPPER LEVEL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST FLOW RUNS FROM VENEZUELA...ACROSS COLOMBIA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND PASSES ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 26N51W TO A SECOND ONE ABOUT 320 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF T.S. CHRIS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FILLING THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE 32N42W 23N60W TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 30N44W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N44W TO 25N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TRUCK. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N58W 27N50W 30N44W 31N41W BEYOND 33N40W. AM EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER ABOUT 240 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES TO 32N30W 27N37W. A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO EXISTS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 28N62W...TO SOUTH FLORIDA...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. $$ MT