000 AXNT20 KNHC 011809 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE CENTER OF T.S. CHRIS IS LOCATED NEAR 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA AT 01/1800 UTC. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CHRIS LIES FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W...PRODUCING STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING CHRIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ITS NNE...AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF CUBA. THIS HAS LED TO SOME SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NE AND SW QUADRANTS...AND IS INHIBITING OUTFLOW IN THE NW QUADRANT. HOWEVER...CHRIS COULD MOVE INTO A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO UPPER LOWS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN ATLC ALONG 29W/30W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE EXHIBITS BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE WITH AN INVERTED V SHAPE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS MIXED WITH ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 16N BETWEEN 23W AND 37W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 69W/70W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH TODAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TYPICAL SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION WEST OF THIS WAVE NEAR 10N72W BUT OVERALL THERE IS VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THIS IS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE THAT SPLIT YESTERDAY JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION NOW T.S. CHRIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 88W/89W S OF 21N. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE W 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK INVERTED V PATTERN IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. A PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...WHICH MAY ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE E/SE FLOW ALONG THE NEARBY TERRAIN. CONVECTION ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WAVE IS MINIMAL. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 12N28W 10N31W 12N54W. EAST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ITCZ ALONG 29W...ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST WITHIN 250NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. WEST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ALONG 29W...MOSTLY MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOTED THROUGH THE NE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW EXTENDING ACROSS NE MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. DISTINCT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED SOUTH OF THIS AREA AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO/SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOMINATES THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE GULF. A SWATH OF DRY AIR/FAIR WEATHER LIES IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST GULF FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 82W AND 93W. A SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL GULF...JUST SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA...SHOULD MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT ROTATES AROUND AN UPPER LOW SEEN SPINNING IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. THE SURFACE PATTERN IN THE GULF REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN AS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA ALONG WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF AN ATLC SURFACE HIGH IS PRODUCING 5 TO 15KT E/SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. EVEN LIGHTER WINDS EXIST IN THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE GULF/APALACHEE BAY CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE ANTICYCLONE PATTERN DOMINATES. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTH OF CUBA...CENTERED NEAR 19N81W. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS EXTENDING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM ITS CENTER NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IN WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING BETWEEN THESE HIGHS FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 88W. A BROAD AREA OF EASTERLY FLOW IS NOTED S AND SE OF THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF CUBA...THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. A NARROW SWATH OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION FROM T.S. CHRIS IS SPREADING WSW FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENE/NE FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE CENTER OF T.S CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH CHRIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE...10 TO 20KT E TO SE FLOW IS DOMINATING ON THE SW SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED SLIGHTLY STRONGER 20 TO 25KT E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS BETWEEN VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA AND HISPANIOLA. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WIND AREA WELL AND SUGGESTS IT WILL PERSIST WHILE EXPANDING FURTHER WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE SW PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH INTERACTS WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE WINDS EXIST IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST OFFSHORE NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N71W JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SCATTERED...HEAVILY SHEARED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW IN THE AREA BETWEEN COASTAL HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE E/W LINE FROM 27N65W TO 27N72W. SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING AND SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE AREA SHOW SOME WEAK TROUGHING. THUS...A WEAK REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER LOW IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROF ON THE 12Z MAP. LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS FROM ITS CENTER NEAR 21N33W. A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF IS LOCATED NW OF THIS RIDGE MOSTLY N OF 30N BETWEEN 47W AND 63W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST PORTION OF ITS 1030MB CENTER NEAR 36N24W. THE OTHER SURFACE FEATURES NOTED ARE OBVIOUSLY T.S CHRIS NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BROAD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 30W...SEE MORE INFO ON THESE FEATURES ABOVE. $$ WILLIS 000 AXNT20 KNHC 011809 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE CENTER OF T.S. CHRIS IS LOCATED NEAR 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA AT 01/1800 UTC. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CHRIS LIES FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W...PRODUCING STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING CHRIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ITS NNE...AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF CUBA. THIS HAS LED TO SOME SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NE AND SW QUADRANTS...AND IS INHIBITING OUTFLOW IN THE NW QUADRANT. HOWEVER...CHRIS COULD MOVE INTO A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO UPPER LOWS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN ATLC ALONG 29W/30W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE EXHIBITS BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE WITH AN INVERTED V SHAPE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS MIXED WITH ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 16N BETWEEN 23W AND 37W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 69W/70W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH TODAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TYPICAL SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION WEST OF THIS WAVE NEAR 10N72W BUT OVERALL THERE IS VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THIS IS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE THAT SPLIT YESTERDAY JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION NOW T.S. CHRIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 88W/89W S OF 21N. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE W 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK INVERTED V PATTERN IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. A PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...WHICH MAY ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE E/SE FLOW ALONG THE NEARBY TERRAIN. CONVECTION ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WAVE IS MINIMAL. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 12N28W 10N31W 12N54W. EAST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ITCZ ALONG 29W...ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST WITHIN 250NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. WEST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ALONG 29W...MOSTLY MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOTED THROUGH THE NE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW EXTENDING ACROSS NE MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. DISTINCT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED SOUTH OF THIS AREA AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO/SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOMINATES THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE GULF. A SWATH OF DRY AIR/FAIR WEATHER LIES IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST GULF FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 82W AND 93W. A SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL GULF...JUST SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA...SHOULD MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT ROTATES AROUND AN UPPER LOW SEEN SPINNING IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. THE SURFACE PATTERN IN THE GULF REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN AS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA ALONG WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF AN ATLC SURFACE HIGH IS PRODUCING 5 TO 15KT E/SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. EVEN LIGHTER WINDS EXIST IN THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE GULF/APALACHEE BAY CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE ANTICYCLONE PATTERN DOMINATES. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTH OF CUBA...CENTERED NEAR 19N81W. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS EXTENDING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM ITS CENTER NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IN WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING BETWEEN THESE HIGHS FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 88W. A BROAD AREA OF EASTERLY FLOW IS NOTED S AND SE OF THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF CUBA...THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. A NARROW SWATH OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION FROM T.S. CHRIS IS SPREADING WSW FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENE/NE FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE CENTER OF T.S CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH CHRIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE...10 TO 20KT E TO SE FLOW IS DOMINATING ON THE SW SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED SLIGHTLY STRONGER 20 TO 25KT E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS BETWEEN VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA AND HISPANIOLA. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WIND AREA WELL AND SUGGESTS IT WILL PERSIST WHILE EXPANDING FURTHER WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE SW PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH INTERACTS WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE WINDS EXIST IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST OFFSHORE NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N71W JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SCATTERED...HEAVILY SHEARED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW IN THE AREA BETWEEN COASTAL HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE E/W LINE FROM 27N65W TO 27N72W. SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING AND SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE AREA SHOW SOME WEAK TROUGHING. THUS...A WEAK REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER LOW IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROF ON THE 12Z MAP. LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS FROM ITS CENTER NEAR 21N33W. A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF IS LOCATED NW OF THIS RIDGE MOSTLY N OF 30N BETWEEN 47W AND 63W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST PORTION OF ITS 1030MB CENTER NEAR 36N24W. THE OTHER SURFACE FEATURES NOTED ARE OBVIOUSLY T.S CHRIS NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BROAD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 30W...SEE MORE INFO ON THESE FEATURES ABOVE. $$ WILLIS